Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Green for First Time Since March 2023

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Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator has flipped green, a signal that has historically preceded sustained price rallies. However, analysts have flagged one notable exception that keeps the outlook from being a clean bullish call. Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Green for First Time Since March 2023 Key Takeaways Bullish Signal Flashes Near $80,000 Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin Bull- Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on Tuesday for the first time since March 2023, per data shared by the analytics firm. The shift marks what analysts describe as a potential transition from a bear-market environment to one where conditions historically favor a sustained uptrend. The indicator is built on Cryptoquant’s Profit and Loss (P&L) Index, which aggregates three key onchain metrics, namely the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratios (LTH/STH SOPR). When the P&L Index climbs above its 365-day moving average, the indicator flips green. When it falls below, it turns red. The last confirmed green signal came in March 2023, and it held continuously until August 2024, a period that covered one of bitcoin’s most significant bull cycles, during which the price climbed from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. By that measure, Tuesday’s flip carries meaningful weight for traders watching for cycle turning points. Historical Context and 2026 Forecasts Despite the positive signal, Cryptoquant was careful to flag a caveat. In March 2022, the same indicator flashed green before price quickly rejected the move and continued lower, eventually bottoming out with the FTX collapse in November of that year. That false signal is why analysts say Tuesday’s read should be treated as a data point to watch, not a guaranteed green light. The timing of the flip aligns with several other bullish onchain developments accumulating simultaneously. April spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows reached $2.44 billion, the strongest institutional accumulation month since October 2025. Whale wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have grown by 142 addresses over the past six months. Moreover, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in bitcoin’s history; the only comparable prior readings occurred at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both of which were followed by sustained bull markets. The Bull-Bear indicator had been deep in negative territory as recently as February 2026, when Cryptoquant noted it had dropped to its lowest level since the FTX bottom. That stretch corresponded with bitcoin pulling back from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The recovery since has been gradual, with price stabilizing in the $80,000 range and ETF flows turning consistently positive heading into May. Price forecasts for the rest of 2026 remain divided, with Standard Chartered and Bernstein both targeting $150,000 by year-end, while Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, has argued that the October 2025 high may have been the cycle top, with 2026 acting as a consolidation year rather than a continuation.

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