False rally alert! CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April surge is "highly speculative," may face correction

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Bitcoin's rally in April this year was unstoppable, yet behind the impressive performance, there may be hidden concerns. On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's recent price surge is merely a "speculative rebound" lacking fundamental buying support, with correction risks increasing by the day, and investors should remain vigilant. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out in a report that Bitcoin surged from $66,000 to a high of $79,000 in April, a gain of 20%, but this was almost entirely driven by growth in perpetual futures demand; in contrast, "spot demand," which truly represents market fundamentals, showed a contraction during this period. He said: Throughout April, the rise in Bitcoin prices was driven almost entirely by perpetual futures demand, while spot apparent demand continued to shrink. This structure (rising futures demand, shrinking spot demand) has historically often corresponded to unsustainable rallies in a bear market. Julio Moreno emphasized that this divergence between futures and spot is one of the clearest on-chain signals of a "speculative rebound," indicating that the price increase is primarily driven by leverage rather than genuine Bitcoin accumulation. This rally, lacking a structural foundation, is destined to be unsustainable; once futures positions are liquidated, it usually triggers a price correction. Repeating the 2022 bear market? CryptoQuant observed that the current market demand pattern dominated by perpetual contracts is very similar to the scene at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While it cannot be concluded that history will definitely repeat itself, the current structure does indeed present "significant downside risk." CryptoQuant emphasized that in a true bull market, price highs must be accompanied by simultaneous growth in spot demand: If spot demand does not turn from negative to positive, any rally attempting to return to the previous high of $79,000 will struggle to achieve a true breakout due to the lack of substantial support from on-chain data. In addition, the "CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator," which synthesizes multiple on-chain and market indicators (measured from 0 to 100, with above 50 being bullish and below 50 being bearish), fell from 50 to 40 in April, returning to the bear market range. This confirms that after experiencing a speculative rally driven by perpetual futures, on-chain fundamentals have deteriorated. CryptoQuant concluded: The index falling back to 40 indicates that market conditions are "turning bearish," which has historically often been a precursor to continued price weakness. As of press time, Bitcoin has strongly broken through the $80,000 mark, with a 2.5% gain over the past 24 hours. While celebrating the record-high price, investors should perhaps also heighten their vigilance and prepare risk management for potential market shifts.

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