Quantum computers breaking Bitcoin "could trigger $145 billion sell-off"? Analysis: The market can handle it

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With the rapid advancement of quantum computing technology, panic has once again been ignited within the crypto community: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin? If the "Satoshi-era" ancient wallets were all hacked, would this potential sell-off of 1.7 million BTC, worth $145 billion, cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse instantly? The threat of quantum computing is indeed not unfounded. Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that, theoretically, if a quantum computer has sufficient computing power, it could brute-force Bitcoin's "Elliptic Curve Signatures," thereby hacking into wallets where the "public key" has already been exposed, with "Satoshi-era" early wallets being the most vulnerable. In this regard, quantum doomsayers warn that once the protective shield of these ancient whales is torn, a massive amount of BTC will flood the market, triggering an epic crash. However, if we calm down and crunch the numbers, the data provides a completely different answer. Currently, approximately 1.7 million BTC are stored in early addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks. At current prices, the potential sell pressure amounts to $145 billion. It sounds like a nuclear-level market negative, but in terms of practical trading, this figure is well within the absorption capacity of the cryptocurrency market. Looking at historical data, during bull market rallies, long-term holders (investors who have held BTC for at least 155 days) sell an average of 10,000 to 30,000 BTC per day. At this rate, even if the 1.7 million BTC from the Satoshi era were to flood the market, it would be equivalent to only two to three months of typical profit-taking. Looking back at the recent bear market, more than 2.3 million BTC changed hands among investors in a single quarter—a scale that already exceeds the "total attack target" of quantum computers—yet the market did not experience a systemic collapse. Ancient whales cannot trigger a tsunami. Furthermore, the monthly inflow of BTC into cryptocurrency exchanges is nearly 850,000; and in the derivatives market, the notional trading volume created every few days is enough to offset this entire batch of Satoshi-era BTC. In other words, while $145 billion is an astronomical figure when viewed in isolation, it appears quite ordinary when placed against the existing liquidity and turnover rate of Bitcoin. Of course, James Check also admitted that if this massive sell pressure were to erupt in the short term, it would inevitably trigger violent market volatility or even a prolonged downturn, but this assumption is based on the premise that "hackers have no economic common sense." He explained that any hacker with such advanced technology, capable of cracking and stealing this massive fortune, would never choose to "dump everything at once" and shoot themselves in the foot. To maximize profits, they would inevitably adopt a slow, batch-selling strategy, or even use derivatives to hedge, significantly reducing the profit loss caused by "slippage." The real test is not sell pressure, but "governance." History has proven that the Bitcoin market has sufficient resilience to smoothly absorb sell-offs of this scale within months (rather than years). Therefore, in the face of a quantum crisis, the real test has never been simple mechanical sell pressure, but "governance." When that day truly approaches, how should the Bitcoin community and developers respond? Rather than worrying about a market collapse, the greater point of contention is: Should the Bitcoin network initiate a mechanism similar to BIP-361 to forcibly "freeze" these threatened early addresses? Or should it adhere to the spirit of Bitcoin's "decentralization and censorship resistance," letting market mechanisms resolve everything naturally? This is the ultimate question that the quantum crisis poses to the entire crypto space.

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Published:2026-04-24 08:19:28

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