Trump says US-Iran deal is "imminent," Polymarket odds of a nuclear agreement this year soar to 81%

ORIGINAL川普稱美伊「談妥在即」，Polymarket 押今年達成核協議機率飆至 81%

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Trump claimed on the 24th that the US-Iran peace agreement "has been largely negotiated." Polymarket bettors piled in upon hearing the news, and the odds of reaching a nuclear agreement before 2027 surged to 81% in a single day. (Previous context: Gunshots reported at the White House again! Secret Service killed the gunman, 1 bystander caught in the crossfire sent to hospital in critical condition) (Background: Trump says he "can accept a pause" on military action against Iran! Iran proposes Strait of Hormuz as exchange condition) Trump posted this morning, stating: the peace agreement between the US and Iran "has largely completed negotiations, the final details and terms of the agreement are currently being discussed, and will be announced soon." He revealed on Truth Social that he had just completed a "very smooth" video call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, with discussions centered on Iran and a peace memorandum. On the other hand, Trump pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz will also reopen. This waterway, through which approximately 20% of global oil exports must pass, once unblocked, is expected to significantly reduce concerns about the energy supply chain in the Middle East. After Trump's statement was released, funds moved rapidly on the prediction market Polymarket. The odds for "reaching a formal nuclear agreement before January 1, 2027" rose quickly within 24 hours, currently sitting at 81%. Meanwhile, the odds for "the US invading Iran before 2027" simultaneously collapsed by 8 percentage points to 18%, with 24-hour trading volume reaching as high as $741,058, indicating that funds are more concentrated on betting in the "no war" direction.

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