Morning Minute: Bitcoin Falls After Powell's Likely Final FOMC

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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify. GM! Today’s top news: - Crypto majors fall 2-3% after FOMC and rate cut odds go to 0; BTC at $76k - Big Tech earnings beat, CapEx thesis pays off; GOOG +7%, AMZN +3% - Meta launches stablecoin payouts for creators using USDC - Sky posts its best quarter ever, token still falls - MegaETH debuts its MEGA token, reaches $2B+ FDV on open 👋 Jerome Powell’s Final FOMC Jerome Powell held what is likely to be his last press conference as Federal Reserve chair Wednesday after the FOMC voted 8-4 to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75%. Notably there were four dissents—a pointed signal to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh: Don’t assume this committee will follow your lead. The surprise from the meeting came from Powell, who announced he will remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors beyond May 15 for a period he described as “to be determined,” citing the Trump administration’s ongoing investigations into the Fed. “We’ve been having to resort to the courts. We’ve been successful so far. But that’s not over.” As for the economy and the Fed’s next actions, Powell said the Fed faces an unusually difficult situation—four supply shocks in quick succession (pandemic, Ukraine invasion, tariffs, and Iran war), each capable of driving inflation and unemployment higher simultaneously. Odds of a rate cut in 2026 fell to 1% after his comments (down from ~25% last week). 💰 Big Tech Earnings Don’t Disappoint Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta all reported Q1 2026 results Wednesday after the close. The broad summary is that AI capex is beginning to justify itself, cloud growth is accelerating, and the ROI debate that has hung over big tech all year is tilting constructive. The one exception is Meta, whose stock fell 6-7% in after-hours trading despite beating on revenue after raising its already-enormous 2026 capex guidance by another $10 billion. Meta also missed on user growth and blamed “internet disruptions in Iran.” Alphabet (Google) was the standout. Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year to $20.1 billion, its fastest growth since 2022. CEO Sundar Pichai said enterprise AI solutions became the primary cloud growth driver “for the first time in Q1.” All four beat earnings, though the stocks of each had varying results. Key Details: - Alphabet: Google Cloud +63% to $20.1B, net income +81%, AI enterprise solutions “primary cloud growth driver for the first time”; capex raised to $180-190B; stock +7% - Amazon: AWS revenue $37.59B (+28%), beat consensus by nearly $1B, fastest cloud growth in 3+ years; operating income +23% to $14.16B; AI revenue run rate confirmed at $15B+ for first time; stock +3% - Microsoft: Azure +40%, beat expectations; combined with Alphabet and AWS, cloud AI monetization is broadly on track; stock -2% - Meta: revenue $56.31B (+33%), beat on EPS, strong ad metrics - but capex raised $10B at both ends to $125-145B; blamed Iran disruptions for user growth miss; shares -9% AH on the capex raise 💸 Meta Launches Stablecoin Payouts for Creators Meta has quietly begun paying select creators in USDC on Solana and Polygon, marking the company’s return to crypto payments four years after shutting down its Libra project under intense regulatory pressure. The rollout is currently limited to creators in Colombia and the Philippines, who can link a MetaMask, Phantom, or Binance wallet to their Facebook payout account and receive earnings in Circle’s USDC. Stripe handles the backend infrastructure and crypto-specific tax reporting. Meta is clear it is not issuing its own stablecoin; it is plugging into USDC, and is not offering an off-ramp, meaning creators must convert to local currency through a third-party exchange themselves. 📈 Sky Protocol (MakerDAO) Posts Its Best Quarter Ever Sky Protocol (the rebranded version of MakerDAO) posted record Q1 2026 financial results Tuesday. The $13 billion protocol generated nearly $124 million in gross revenue and almost $61 million in net revenue in the first three months of the year, the highest income since MakerDAO launched in 2017. Institutional interest in on-chain yield products continues to grow, and Sky’s real-world asset collateral model, which generates revenue from loan stability fees, liquidation fees, and peg stability module fees, is benefiting directly from that demand. Despite the bullish results, the SKY governance token fell about 2.4% on the news. It serves as a painful reminder for token holders, that revenue records don’t automatically translate to token holder value (unless the tokenomics dictate it via buybacks or other routes). 🥩 Steak ‘n Shake’s Bitcoin Strategy Is Actually Working The 91-year-old burger chain began accepting Bitcoin payments in May 2025 across all U.S. locations. Since then, same-store sales rose “dramatically.” Payment processing fees dropped 50% compared with credit cards via the Lightning Network. The company routed all customer-paid Bitcoin directly into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve rather than converting it to cash, formalized a $10 million treasury purchase in January, added another $10 million in April ahead of the Bitcoin 2026 conference, and just launched a Bitcoin-themed milkshake . In March, it began paying hourly employees a 21-cent-per-hour Bitcoin bonus funded from the reserve. COO Dan Edwards describes the model as a self-reinforcing cycle: customers pay in Bitcoin, sales rise, Bitcoin revenue funds restaurant upgrades and employee bonuses, and better stores attract more customers. With 210 BTC in its treasury and counting, and sales increasing, Stake ‘n Shake is turning into one of Bitcoin’s biggest consumer success stories. 🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets - Crypto majors fell after FOMC and odds of a rate cut in 2026 went to 0; BTC -2% at $76k; ETH -3% at $2,260; SOL -2% at $83; HYPE -4% at $39 - LUNC (+3%), POL (+2%), and TRON (+1%) led top movers - Oil +2% at $105; Gold +2% at $4,640 - Stock futures are green after earnings beats from Big Tech and Eli Lilly - Jack Maller’s Twenty One Capital surged on Wednesday after majority owner Tether proposed merging XXI with Strike and Bitcoin miner Elektron Energy, uniting treasury, mining, payments, and capital markets under one public company; XXI holds 43,514 BTC (~$3.3B), third among public companies - Visa expanded to five more blockchains on Wednesday, adding Base, Polygon, Canton, Circle’s Arc, and Stripe’s Tempo to its stablecoin settlement pilot; the program has hit a $7 billion annualized run rate, up 50% from last quarter - MoonPay acquired Israeli firm Sodot for $100 million in stock and used the deal to launch MoonPay Institutional, a new division for banks and asset managers led by former CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham - Alex Mashinsky was permanently banned from crypto under a $10 million FTC settlement on Wednesday; a $4.72 billion judgment was entered but largely suspended Corporate Treasuries & ETFs - The Bitcoin ETFs saw another $138M in net outflows on Wednesday; the ETH ETFs saw $88M in outflows Meme Coin Tracker - Meme leaders were very red; DOGE -3%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -5%, PENGU -6%, TRUMP -4%, BONK -4%, SPX -7%, FARTCOIN -7% - WISH (+71x), Bio (+33%) and testicle (+15%) led notable movers 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker - MegaETH’s MEGA token debuted this morning, opening at $0.18 and a $200M market cap ($1.8B FDV) - Pump Fun launched Charity Coins as a way to solve the issue of charity-related memes not getting proceeds to the right places - Hyperliquid published the fee structure for HIP-4 Wednesday, its prediction market proposal that lets users trade binary outcome contracts within the same margin account as their existing perps; no open-position fees, costs apply only at close or settlement 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? - NFT leaders were green led by Bored Apes; Punks even at 30.9 ETH, BAYC +10% at 10.8 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 5.34 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 350 HYPE - Azuki Elementals (+25%), Kodas (+22%) and MAYC (+12%) led notable top movers

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