ADA buying more as it drops: addresses holding over 1 million ADA control 67% of supply, chip concentration hits new high since 2020

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On-chain data shows that Cardano large holders are accelerating their accumulation at the lows after ADA has plunged over 70%, with token concentration hitting a new high since 2020; however, collapsing TVL, a quiet DEX, and continued retail outflows make the "whale bullish" narrative highly controversial. (Previous context: What is Cardano doing? Bitcoin breaks $81,000, ADA still lying flat at $0.25) (Background: Cardano prepares coin-for-coin swap! Founder proposes using $100 million in ADA to exchange for Bitcoin and stablecoins, improving DeFi liquidity shortage issue) Wallet addresses holding at least 1 million ADA collectively control 25.09 billion ADA, accounting for approximately 67.47% of the current circulating supply — a concentration level not seen since July 2020. Most retail investors are dumping Cardano, while whales are quietly sweeping all the chips into their pockets. According to on-chain data published by Santiment in mid-May, ADA's current price is only around $0.25, with a cumulative drop of over 70% in the past 9 months, and the total market value of whale holdings has shrunk to approximately $6.5 billion. On one side a crash, on the other side massive buying — this counterintuitive combination is precisely the most intriguing market signal for Cardano right now. Santiment data further shows that this round of whale accumulation is not short-term trading; the trend of increased holdings by large addresses can be traced back to December 2023, lasting over a year and a half, spanning the entire market ups and downs from 2024 to 2025. The timing is significant. Late 2023 was the early brewing period of the previous bull run, when some large holders chose to quietly build positions before mainstream capital entered. Now, with ADA falling near historical lows, they have not reduced holdings but continue to add to positions, showing high confidence in long-term returns — or at least, high stickiness to existing positions. Analysts generally believe these large holders view ADA as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term DeFi liquidity tool. After all, current on-chain protocols lack sufficient short-term yield opportunities; if whales want to "earn ADA with ADA," their options are extremely limited. However, behind the optimistic expectations, Cardano's ecosystem fundamentals don't look good. Santiment's report points out that Cardano's on-chain Total Value Locked (TVL) has fallen sharply from its December 2024 peak of $686 million to approximately $137 million currently, a drop of nearly 80%. DEX daily trading volume is similarly sluggish, maintaining only around $2 million, which is almost negligible compared to whale holdings exceeding $6.7 billion in scale. Retail actions are more direct. Santiment data shows that small addresses holding 100 to 1,000 ADA collectively sold 76.22 million coins over a period of time (a -15.6% reduction), while medium-sized addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ADA sold 320 million coins (a -14.4% reduction). The collective retail exodus stands in stark contrast to the whales' continued accumulation, forming a sharp contrast in direction. Cardano has long branded itself with the core narrative of academic-driven, decentralized governance, but 67% of the supply being concentrated in the hands of a few large addresses is triggering a new round of community skepticism. Cracks have also appeared at the governance level. According to public community information, a representative DRep (Delegated Representative, i.e., representative nodes under Cardano's governance system) has continuously blocked IOG's funding proposals since July 2025. IOG's budget request for 2026 is $46.8 million, significantly reduced from $97.5 million in 2025, yet still strongly resisted by some large holders. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson expressed strong dissatisfaction with this. He publicly rebutted that external criticisms of whale governance are "emotional" rather than based on well-founded analysis. Hoskinson has also repeatedly reaffirmed that Cardano will surpass Ethereum and Bitcoin within the next decade, a statement that has always received mixed reviews in the community. The historical parallel most often cited by supporters is the substantial rebound rally that followed the round of large-scale whale accumulation in 2020. Indeed, July 2020, as marked by Santiment data, was the previous peak of current concentration levels, and ADA's rise in 2021 once exceeded 3,000%. But the 2026 environment is completely different. Cardano's competitors are no longer just Ethereum; ecosystems like Solana and Base have far surpassed Cardano in actual DeFi usage. What the whales are betting on looks more like an option that may explode in the future, rather than an asset with sufficient fundamental support at present. Whales buy more as prices fall — whether this long-term conviction will bring rich returns or turn into sunk costs, let's continue to watch.

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