Bitcoin plunges toward $75,000! Market closely watches the "golden cross" signal — is the next major rally on the way?

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Global equities surged to record highs, but the crypto market failed to join the bullish party. During Wednesday's Asian trading session, Bitcoin briefly fell to $75,220, decoupling from the overnight record-breaking global equity rally. According to CoinGecko data, major coins including XRP, ETH, and Solana (SOL) all posted declines of around 1% over the past 24 hours. Among them, privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) crashed over 9% to $566, marking the steepest drop among the top 15 cryptocurrencies. However, there were still some bright spots bucking the trend. Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose 1.4% to $59.99, with its market cap now closely trailing Dogecoin (DOGE), while TRX held nearly flat, up 5% over the past week — maintaining a steady upward pace while most mainstream coins remained stuck in narrow ranges. "Golden Cross" Becomes the Bulls' Last Hope Despite short-term price weakness, a critical move is brewing on the technical charts, drawing traders' close attention. In his latest report, FXPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that Bitcoin is currently seeking support near its rising 50-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average briefly acted as resistance in early May. These two key moving averages are expected to intersect in the coming weeks, forming what's known in technical analysis as a "Golden Cross" — typically viewed by both Wall Street and the crypto community as a strong bullish signal. Alex Kuptsikevich added that before the cross officially forms, any decisive breakout in price toward either moving average will determine the overall direction of the crypto market for the weeks ahead. Funding Concerns: ETF Outflows and Retail Over-Leverage Spark Liquidation Risk However, from the perspective of positioning and capital flows, the situation appears to harbor underlying risks. According to CryptoOnchain data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $1.74 billion over the past two weeks. Even more concerning, as institutional capital retreats, retail investors continue to ramp up leverage. Historically, the deadly combination of "capital outflows" plus "retail over-leverage" has often been a dangerous precursor to "cascading liquidations" when the market reverses. Ethereum Becomes the Key Bellwether This uneasy atmosphere has prompted the broader market to urgently seek the next directional leader. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said the ETH chart is currently the key focus for gauging market conditions. He noted that ETH has repeatedly stumbled when challenging the $2,400 level recently, further establishing this price as an extremely resilient resistance zone. Kruger emphasized that once ETH can decisively close above $2,400 on the daily chart, it will signal a major technical breakout and potentially reawaken institutional investors' appetite to enter. On the regulatory and product front, the U.S. SEC officially approved the listing of a "Bitcoin Index Options" product on Monday. The index is calculated based on Bitcoin prices aggregated across multiple exchanges, making it the first innovative hedging instrument of its kind on the market. Prior to this, crypto options on traditional U.S. exchanges were limited to single products tied to spot Bitcoin ETFs. Equities and Crypto Decouple Looking back at the macro picture, global equities are charting a starkly different and aggressive course. The MSCI All-Country World Index closed higher for a sixth consecutive day, hitting a new all-time peak; South Korea's Kospi has surged about 100% year-to-date, making it the best-performing major equity market globally. U.S. equities were equally lively, with memory chip giant Micron skyrocketing 19% in a single day, officially breaking the $1 trillion market cap threshold and joining SK Hynix atop the semiconductor pedestal. Meanwhile, on news of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Brent crude fell 1.5% to $98 per barrel; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down slightly to 4.47%. Over the past month, "Bitcoin significantly underperforming equities" has emerged as the clearest trend signal in the market. How will this gap between stocks and crypto ultimately converge? Will chip stocks lead an equity pullback, or will Bitcoin stage a catch-up rally? The answer likely hinges on which of those two key moving averages on the Bitcoin chart shows its hand first.

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