In conversation with Glassnode analysts: Bitcoin bull market restarts, market remains in "sell the rally" phase

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Source: *What Bitcoin Did* Former Glassnode lead analyst Checkmate joined the *What Bitcoin Did* podcast. In the episode, Checkmate explained why the $60,000 surge looked like a genuine capitulation event, noting that there is an 80% probability that the bottom is in and that we are in a bull market, though it will require a long period of consolidation. He also discussed rising bond yields, the collapsing fiscal system, the end of trust in government debt, and ETF capital flows. Finally, he explored Australia's proposed capital gains tax reform. PANews has summarized the highlights of the podcast. Host: Are we currently in a bull or bear market? Because in my view, the worst day of a bear market is often the beginning of a bull market. But is it too early to say we have entered a bull market? Or do you believe we are already in one? Checkmate: That is the correct framework for thinking about this. The worst day of a bear market is often the beginning of a bull market. As I have always described, you often don't know when the bottom has occurred until months or even longer later. We spoke back in February when Bitcoin hit $60,000, and I called that the "price pain capitulation" phase, where everyone sensitive to price became desperate and gave up almost simultaneously. You could see the massive losses, token transfers, and market panic at the time; my inbox was also flooded. It felt just like the crash in June 2022. Looking back at past bear markets, after bottoming out in 2015 and 2018, we experienced months of slow growth. During the FTX collapse in 2022, that was the only time we fell below the previous "pain capitulation" low. Many people, due to the recency effect, believe we must hit new lows, but that is not necessarily the case. We might pull back to $65,000 and bounce, or set a higher low at $75,000. So from my perspective, I think the probability that the bottom is in is about 80%. That is to say, we are in a bull market. But consolidation takes a long time, just like in 2016 and 2023, when it took a full year to break through $30,000. A whole year of boring grinding, where everyone is afraid that every sell-off will push the price lower. You need to build confidence. Unless Bitcoin goes to zero, we must say with certainty that at some point, we will return to a bull market. Host: If there is an 80% certainty, what specific indicators make you so convinced? Are those institutional investors really looking at these technical indicators? Checkmate: First, look at the technicals. I am not a technical analyst, but I understand what institutional traders using Bloomberg Terminals are looking at. Bitcoin's weekly RSI hit 26, which is a historical low. Historically, every time this indicator is below 30, that is the bottom. Many institutional traders only look at Bitcoin's position relative to the 200-day moving average; when the indicator turns from red to green, they pay attention and completely ignore the daily noise. I have a mean reversion model that integrates 9 models, including on-chain, technical, and trend data. Dropping to $60,000 belongs to a "Q10 event," meaning that historically, only 10% of days have seen prices below this relative level. I have seen many bears say it could drop to $45,000, but in my model, that only happened in 2011 when the Bitcoin price was $2, so I wouldn't use that as a baseline forecast. Host: You often mention "Realized Price." Why is it one of the most important indicators right now? Checkmate: "Realized Cap" is calculated based on the value of each coin at the time it last moved, rather than the current spot price, which can be used to measure the cost basis of holders. For example, Satoshi's coins are large in quantity, but their dollar value in the Realized Cap calculation is zero. To more accurately reflect human investor behavior, Dave Puell and I developed the "True Market Mean" framework. If you exclude lost coins and dormant coins and look only at active investors, their current average cost is about $78,000. Meanwhile, average inflows from Strategy, ETFs, and miner production costs are all between $75,000 and $82,000. $85,000 is the midpoint of a significant supply-intensive zone. After breaking through, market sentiment will flip, and people will start "buying the

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Analyst: Bitcoin doesn't need a new narrative to return to $100,000! Price increases will naturally create bullish sentiment, and it remains an "excellent buy-the-dip zone."

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Published:2026-05-21 12:00:59

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