Polymarket reportedly makes secret move into Japan, plans to lobby government to legalize prediction markets by 2030

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Bloomberg reported that Polymarket has quietly appointed a representative in Japan and plans to lobby the government to legalize prediction markets by 2030. (Previous coverage: Bloomberg reveals: Polymarket wants to return to the US, currently in talks with CFTC Chair Selig to lift the 2022 ban) (Background: Polymarket statement on returning to the US: Approved by the CFTC to operate as a Designated Contract Market) According to the report, Polymarket has appointed a representative in Japan and is actively preparing to lobby the Japanese government to legalize prediction markets in the country. The target year for this plan is 2030, and it has not yet been made public. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, stated that Polymarket internally views Japan as a "large, untapped business opportunity." Under current Japanese law, the operating model of prediction markets falls under criminal gambling statutes, creating a significant legal barrier. The regulatory authority, FSA, has yet to issue any specific regulatory guidance on prediction markets, and its stance remains unclear. The FSA's current focus is on shifting crypto assets from the Payment Services Act (PSA) to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA), a broad regulatory restructuring that is expected to consume significant regulatory resources and time. Facing such high barriers, Polymarket has been internally evaluating a "view-only mode" as a potential compliance path: users could browse event contracts and odds without the ability to place bets, allowing the platform to build brand presence and a user base in Japan before full regulatory approval is granted. Bloomberg noted that although Polymarket has not officially entered the Japanese market, Japan-related events are already popular trading targets on the platform. There are currently over 250 active Japan-themed contracts on Polymarket, covering topics such as BOJ interest rate decisions and Japanese national elections, demonstrating high global user interest in Japan's political and economic events. Japan, along with India and South Korea, is listed by Polymarket as one of the three largest untapped markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Given Japan's internet penetration, financial literacy, and high level of interest in political events, its commercial potential is indeed significant. Polymarket's urgency to open the Japanese market is driven by clear competitive pressure. In March 2026, competitor Kalshi reached a monthly trading volume of approximately $130 billion, surpassing Polymarket's approximately $95 billion. Both platforms are currently valued at around $20 billion, and the competition is intensifying. Polymarket is available in about 180 countries worldwide but is restricted or explicitly banned in over 33 jurisdictions, significantly limiting its geographical expansion. In February of this year, Polymarket was integrated into the "Prediction" tab of Jupiter, the largest decentralized exchange on Solana, sparking a wave of interest among users in Southeast Asia, but the Japanese market remains a threshold yet to be crossed. If the 2030 timeline can be achieved, Polymarket would become the first decentralized prediction market platform to gain formal regulatory recognition in a major Asia-Pacific market. However, this path requires convincing not just a regulatory agency, but an institutional framework rooted in the criminal code.

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