Bloomberg: Polymarket eyes return to US, in talks with CFTC Chair Selig to lift 2022 ban

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Bloomberg reported exclusively on April 28 that Polymarket has been in discussions with CFTC officials over the past few weeks, aiming to lift the 2022 settlement ban and allow US traders to re-enter its main exchange. With the main site's monthly trading volume exceeding $10 billion, this potential return to the US is significant. Furthermore, with four vacancies on the CFTC commission, the power to approve or reject rests solely with Chairman Michael Selig. (Context: The Trump administration supports Polymarket and Kalshi! The US Department of Justice and the CFTC sued three states including Arizona, sparking a jurisdictional war over prediction markets.) (Background: Polymarket's latest valuation is $15 billion, with two funding rounds in one month; however, it still trails Kalshi's $22 billion valuation.) Prediction market leader Polymarket is planning a comeback after four years of absence. Bloomberg reported exclusively on April 28, citing sources, that Polymarket has proactively contacted CFTC officials in recent weeks to initiate formal discussions on "lifting the 2022 settlement ban and allowing US traders to return to the main exchange." If approved, this would mark the first time Polymarket has returned to its home market in a compliant manner since being forced to exit the US. The story dates back to 2022, when the CFTC determined that Polymarket was an "unregistered binary options exchange." The two parties reached a $1.4 million settlement, the cost of which was shutting off access to US users and moving the main exchange's on-chain operations overseas. This decision left Polymarket "out" from a regulatory perspective, but it did not hinder its explosive business growth. In March of this year, Polymarket's main site saw monthly trading volume exceed $10 billion. During the 2024 US presidential election, it gained fame for its accurate predictions, becoming the absolute leader in the crypto prediction sector. However, all growth dividends have been outside US jurisdiction—a structural problem Polymarket urgently needs to solve. Polymarket has not been unprepared. In July 2025, the company acquired QCX LLC for approximately $112 million, renamed it Polymarket US, and obtained a derivatives exchange license formally registered with the CFTC. However, this "US version" currently focuses only on sports markets with limited activity types, unable to accommodate the massive political and economic prediction volume of the main site. Bloomberg cited sources indicating that the core of these negotiations is to "integrate the main site's overseas on-chain operations with the US license obtained by QCX under the same regulatory framework," thereby allowing US users to legally access Polymarket's full product line. This is seen as a key step in Polymarket's strategy to return to the US. The current personnel structure of the CFTC unexpectedly makes this easier to advance. Currently, four of the five CFTC commissioner seats are vacant, with Chairman Michael Selig being the only one in office. According to regulations, any approval resolution only requires one vote to pass—meaning that for Polymarket's return to the US, it essentially only needs to convince Selig. Selig has previously publicly expressed support for prediction markets, explicitly arguing that "states have no right to regulate prediction markets; this is the exclusive federal authority of the CFTC," a clear stance. The Trump administration has also joined forces with the Department of Justice and the CFTC to sue three states, including Arizona, to actively defend federal regulatory dominance over prediction markets, which is consistent with Selig's position. From a regulatory environment perspective, this may be the most favorable window for Polymarket in the last four years. But the situation is not all smooth sailing. Polymarket is simultaneously facing several thorny external pressures. First, an insider trading case involving a US service member: A soldier allegedly used a VPN to bypass geoblocking to access Polymarket's overseas site and used classified information to conduct prediction trades, profiting over $400,000. This case directly highlights the regulatory loophole that Polymarket's "overseas site is still effectively used by Americans." Second, in April, Wisconsin sued Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase on the grounds of "illegal sports betting," betting against the Trump administration on jurisdictional ownership. This legal battle between the federal and state governments has yet to be concluded. The approval timeline and negotiation details have not been disclosed, and Bloomberg also noted that discussions between the two parties are still ongoing. If Polymarket is ultimately approved to return to the US, the impact on the sector's landscape cannot be underestimated. Currently, competitor Kalshi has a valuation of $22 billion and has been deeply rooted in the US for many years, making it Polymarket's most direct rival. Although Polymarket has completed two rounds of financing in the past month, reaching a valuation of $1

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