Bitcoin key indicator "exits bear market zone"! Analysts warn: Don't get too excited too soon

📄Full Article· Automatically extracted by trafilaturaGemini 翻譯1080 words

According to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" has recently rebounded to 50 points, marking its first exit from the "bear market zone" into a neutral state since Bitcoin retreated from its high of $126,000. This suggests that the overall market structure is gradually recovering from weakness, with some even interpreting it as a sign that the months-long bear market gloom may have dissipated. However, this signal may not be as optimistic as it appears on the surface. The "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" is a comprehensive on-chain metric that measures the health of the Bitcoin market by analyzing 10 on-chain indicators, including on-chain activity, investor profitability, and market liquidity. If the index remains below 40 points for an extended period, the market is typically considered to be in a structural bear market; if it is above 60 points, it indicates that the market is in a strong and sustainable uptrend. The current reading of 50 points means that approximately half of the constituent indicators have turned bullish, while the remainder remain bearish. In other words, the market has moved from total pessimism into a transitional phase of tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In terms of price action, Bitcoin's recent rebound from approximately $60,000 to $78,000 echoes the return of the "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" to the neutral zone. However, as market sentiment warms, historical experience casts a shadow. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that a very similar scenario occurred in March 2022. At that time, the "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" also rose to 50 points, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded from about $35,000 to nearly $48,000, leading investors to believe that the bear market was over. Unexpectedly, Bitcoin subsequently plummeted over the following months, even halving to below $20,000, with the bear market not only failing to end but deepening further. He stated: "This is the first time the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered the neutral zone in this bear market. In March 2022, the indicator stayed in the neutral zone for about a week before the price resumed its decline." This implies that the current market is more likely in a "turning point" and has not yet established a new bull trend. While on-chain indicators do reflect improved market conditions, from the perspective of derivatives positioning, investors still lack confidence in the price recovery. Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital noted that the current short-term implied volatility is around 40%, which remains weak compared to realized volatility, reflecting low market expectations for a significant surge. Meanwhile, the skew (an indicator measuring the difference in premiums between call and put options) remains biased toward "downside protection," meaning traders are currently willing to pay more for put options to hedge their positions. Furthermore, the term structure of options shows only a slight upward slope, indicating that market positions are largely betting on "range-bound oscillation" rather than a "sustained surge." In summary, the return of the "Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator" to the neutral zone does represent a recovery in market fundamentals and is a positive signal that cannot be ignored. However, given the lack of confidence in the derivatives market and the shadow of the 2022 "false breakout," investors must remain vigilant. Until the index firmly stands above the 60-point bull market threshold, the price action over the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin's rebound is a call to arms or a bull trap.

Data Status✓ Full text extractedRead Original (區塊客)

🔍Historical Similar Events· Keyword + Asset Matching0 items

No similar events found (requires more data samples or embedding search; currently MVP keyword matching)

Raw Information

ID:413bb9ff6f

Source:區塊客

Published:2026-04-23 08:31:16

Category:zh_news · Export Category zh

Symbols:Unspecified

Community Votes:+0 / −0 · ⭐ 0 Important · 💬 0 Comments