Bitcoin, ether little-changed despite record stocks, falling oil and easing war fears

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Bitcoin, ether little-changed despite record stocks, falling oil and easing war fears Global stocks hit records and oil cracked on a tentative US-Iran ceasefire extension. Crypto stayed on the sidelines, with some analysts saying the next catalyst is regulatory, not geopolitical. What to know: - Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies fell about 5% to 7% over the past week even as global stock indexes hit record highs and oil prices slumped. - A tentative 60-day extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pressured Brent crude to its worst month since March 2020 but failed to spark a sustained crypto rally. - Analysts say bitcoin’s break below key moving averages, softer spot ETF demand and a focus on pending U.S. crypto regulation have left the market without a clear near-term catalyst. A convergence of record highs in global stocks, oil at multi-month lows and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension did little to buoy bitcoin The largest token is still hovering near $73,000 after sliding nearly 6% on the week as institutional buyers wait on U.S. regulatory clarity rather than macro headlines. Ether (ETH) traded just under at $2,000, down 6.4% on the week even after a 1.2% bounce on the day, while solana (SOL), XRP and The macro tape, meanwhile, lit up. The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, climbed 0.3% to an all-time high, and Asian stocks rallied 2% to a record of their own, Bloomberg reported. Brent crude slipped 0.5% to about $93 a barrel and is now down more than 18% in May, its worst month since March 2020, after the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and reopen talks on Tehran's nuclear program. The deal still needs President Donald Trump's signoff, and Iran's Tasnim news agency said the memorandum of understanding had yet to be finalized. That setup, in any other tape, prints money for crypto but didn't this time. Javier Martinez, CEO at sFOX, said in an email the market had already priced in a relief rally on the ceasefire news and that the trade unwound when bitcoin failed to break higher. Institutional investors are now looking past Tehran headlines and toward Washington, he said, pointing to U.S. crypto market structure legislation like the CLARITY Act. "They're waiting on regulatory confirmation, not just macro improvement," Martinez said. Analysts at FxPro said bitcoin has fallen below its 50-day moving average and the longer-running 200-day average is sloping lower, the kind of crossover that has tended to mark stretches of broader weakness. "The time for a long-term bull market has not yet come," they wrote. Earlier this week, Swissblock said bitcoin has slipped into a "high-risk zone" amid selling pressure and a fading bid from spot bitcoin ETFs, the institutional product that powered much of the 2024-2025 rally. Softer ETF demand and a market no longer trading every Iran headline leave crypto without an obvious near-term driver. More For You A record high in long-term holder supply typically signals conviction. CryptoQuant says it reflects a shortage of new buyers, a view echoed by weakening ETF demand and bearish prediction market odds. What to know: - Bitcoin is trading around $73,500, roughly 10% below its recent highs, as on-chain data shows record long-term holder supply that may signal weak market turnover rather than strong conviction. - CryptoQuant finds that short-term holder supply has dropped by about 2.2 million BTC since December and that more coins are simply...

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