Putin rarely admits "the Russia-Ukraine war is nearing its end": Russian offensive stalls, Ukraine's drone advantage expands, BTC briefly hits $81,000

Russian President Vladimir Putin rarely stated after the Victory Day parade on the 9th that the Russia-Ukraine war "is coming to an end." Analysts pointed out that the Russian spring offensive has been hindered, Ukraine's drone advantage has expanded, European aid has resumed, and domestic support is declining, leading the Kremlin to reassess the costs of a long-term war of attrition. (Previous coverage: Dawn of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war! Trump announced a "three-day ceasefire starting May 9th," predicting a comprehensive peace agreement is about to be reached) (Background supplement: Arthur Hayes: Cryptocurrency does not need regulation; the value of Bitcoin lies outside the regulatory system) After attending the Victory Day parade in Moscow on the 9th, Putin rarely revealed in an interview with the media at the Kremlin: "I think this matter is coming to an end." Four years have passed since the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine began. Putin has always been tough on the prospects of the war, so it is rare for him to publicly release such a softening signal. He also stated that he is willing to discuss a new security architecture for Europe and named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as his most desired negotiation partner. However, just a few hours earlier, Putin had vowed on the parade podium that Russia would eventually achieve victory in Ukraine. The discrepancy in his rhetoric has led the outside world to speculate on the Kremlin's true intentions. This year's Red Square parade was significantly smaller than in previous years. Intercontinental ballistic missiles, tanks, and large heavy equipment, which were common in previous years, were all absent this year. The Russian side replaced the physical display with giant screens playing videos of military equipment in combat. It is generally believed that this is directly related to Putin's high alert regarding Ukrainian drone attacks. Recently, Ukrainian drones have continued to strike deep into Russian territory, even hitting high-rise buildings in Moscow. The Kremlin is worried that the parade site could become a target for attacks or assassinations. To this end, the Russian side not only restricted foreign journalists from attending but even temporarily shut down parts of the Russian internet system to prevent footage of unexpected incidents from leaking. The battlefield situation has also become increasingly unfavorable for Russia recently. The Russian army launched a spring offensive in mid-March, originally hoping to capture more Ukrainian territory, but progress has been extremely limited; conversely, Ukraine has even recaptured some lost territory. In the field of drones, Ukraine is said to currently deploy about 30% more than the Russian army, with faster technological iteration and countermeasure speeds. The depth of its attacks has extended into Russian territory, causing significant blows to energy facilities such as oil refineries. Analysts pointed out that these attacks have even offset some of the economic dividends that Russia would have benefited from due to the temporary rise in energy prices driven by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Changes in the European political situation have also increased pressure on the Kremlin. After Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lost the domestic election, the EU's previously blocked $106 billion loan and military aid package for Ukraine have been pushed forward again, further boosting the confidence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At the same time, dissatisfaction with the war within Russia continues to rise. Russian polls show that public support for the war is declining; economists and financial figures have begun to openly discuss the long-term impact of the war on the Russian economy. There are even reports that Putin has privately confided to his confidants that he is worried about the risk of a coup or assassination within Russia. Putin's rare statement that "the war will end" has been seen by some observers as an important sign that Russia has begun to reassess the costs of long-term warfare. If there are real signs of a cooling down in the Russia-Ukraine situation, it may be a catalyst for global markets. The contraction of geopolitical risk premiums often drives a general rebound in risk assets. After Bitcoin hit a low of $79,000 this Friday, it has slowly rebounded over the past two days, reaching $81,000 this morning (the 10th), and is currently trading at $81,074 at the time of writing.