Bull market is back with a vengeance! BitMEX founder: Bitcoin will break through $90,000 and head straight to $126,000

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Arthur Hayes, CIO of the crypto-focused venture fund Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated that the crypto bull market has returned in full force, and he has no intention of waiting for further market confirmation, having long been prepared for this major rally. In a Substack article published on Monday, Arthur Hayes noted that Bitcoin bottomed out at $60,000 earlier this year, and in his view, returning to the all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025 is now "inevitable." $90,000 is the "Tipping Point" Bitcoin briefly surged past the $82,000 mark on Tuesday and was fluctuating around $80,600 at the time of writing. From current price levels, Bitcoin still has about 55% of upside potential to reclaim its former glory. Arthur Hayes, who has a keen grasp of market sentiment, believes the true key level is $90,000. Once Bitcoin decisively breaks through this barrier, the rally will turn explosive. From the perspective of the options market, when the price breaks through the strike price, market makers who sold call options will face extreme risk of loss, forcing them to buy Bitcoin in the spot market to hedge their risks, further stepping on the gas for the price surge. Two Macro "Tailwinds" As for the core driving forces behind this bull market, Arthur Hayes provided an in-depth analysis of two macroeconomic tailwinds pushing capital inflows. First is the "global AI infrastructure race." He observed that the massive capital required for AI development is no longer solely supported by the cash flows of large software giants, but has begun to rely on "credit expansion" from commercial banks and central banks for blood transfusions. Arthur Hayes pointed out that both the Fed and the PBoC are indirectly supporting the expansion of AI infrastructure through looser financial environments; in particular, the Chinese banking system is actively channeling liquidity away from the sluggish real estate market and into the technology and AI sectors. The second push is "geopolitics and war." Arthur Hayes believes that after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, countries have begun to re-strengthen domestic infrastructure and stockpile raw materials and strategic resources, rather than continuing to park large amounts of capital in USD assets. He summarizes the combination of these two as a "long-term high inflation" environment. War, AI infrastructure expansion, and governments printing money frantically to cover these expenses are the perfect breeding ground for Bitcoin to outperform traditional assets. Since the escalation of hostilities on February 28, Bitcoin's performance has far outpaced the Nasdaq 100, the IGV, and the traditional hedge asset gold, proving that market capital has already begun to price in this massive shift in the macroeconomic landscape. Bullish on HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR In addition to Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes also revealed the layout of his fund, Maelstrom, in the altcoin market. Currently, the fund holds significant positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and the privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC), and he named the public chain project NEAR Protocol (NEAR) as their next target for building a position. Regarding the logic behind his bullishness on NEAR, he announced that he would explore it in depth in a subsequent article, but the core thesis is built on the combination of the "privacy narrative" and the protocol's unique "intent-based architecture" (a blockchain design that allows users to express transaction goals without dealing with complex underlying paths), which will create substantial positive cash flow for the protocol. Two Scenarios to End the Bull Market Of course, there is no eternal party in the market. Arthur Hayes also mentioned two potential black swans that could end this bull market. First, if the US and China see an extremely irresponsible mega-AI IPO or M&A deal that causes the market to absorb too much capital and fail to digest it, investors will be jolted awake from their fever dream. The second risk lies in the 2028 US presidential election. If the Democratic camp runs on an "anti-AI" platform, promising to slash capital expenditures, and that stance is widely accepted by voters, it will force the banking industry to reassess whether to continue lending to the tech sector, thereby cutting off the flow of capital. As for the midterm elections in November 2026, he believes the impact will be limited, serving merely as a "speed bump" on the bull market's path. Summarizing the current market state, this crypto legend offered his signature trading advice: It is a bull market now, just close your eyes and buy! The time to take profits will come, but it is definitely not now.

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