Bitcoin Whales Are Pulling Back as Activity 'Mirrors' 2022 Bear Market: Analysts

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In brief - A new CryptoQuant report shows that larger Bitcoin holders are shedding Bitcoin or adding more slowly than usual. - The trend "mirrors" that of 2022's bear market, analysts said, when Bitcoin fell from more than $47,000 to $15,000. - As it stands now, Bitcoin is 42% off its all-time high price set last October. The largest Bitcoin holders are parting ways with their holdings, with the balances of "whales"—or those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—declining over the last year, according to a report from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. The activity, coupled with decelerating accumulation by “dolphins,” or those with between 100-1,000 BTC, matches the pattern of the last major crypto bear market in 2022. “The 1-year change in whale balances remains in negative territory, a distribution pattern directly mirroring the 2022 bear market, when year-over-year whale growth first stalled then turned negative,” the report says. During that period, Bitcoin was priced as high as $47,450 in March to as low as $15,742 in November—a decline of nearly 67%. As it stands now, the top crypto asset has only fallen 42% from its October all-time high of $126,080. “On a monthly basis, both the dolphin and whale cohorts have effectively stalled,” wrote CryptoQuant. The firm added that when these groups of holders simultaneously fail to add Bitcoin, it typically precedes “ sustained price weakness, as they “represent the primary source of structural demand support in Bitcoin markets.” As dolphins and whales stagnate, the balance of BTC held by long-term holders has actually grown to 15.8 million BTC, a new all-time high according to the firm’s data. Yet, that data point is a counterintuitive signal, analysts said, labeling it “a bearish configuration signaling the absence of new market entrants.” “Long-term holder supply increases when Bitcoin does not change hands at scale,” CryptoQuant wrote, calling the short-term demand “insufficient” to deal with the selling from long-term holders. Bitcoin was recently changing hands around $73,536 on Thursday, down 1.7% in the last 24 hours and now nearly 5% on the week. Given its fall, traders have become increasingly bearish on its short-term price, with odds growing on Myriad—a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—that BTC will trade below $70,000 before May concludes.

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