Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, internal divisions intensify! Bitcoin briefly dipped to $75,000

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The Fed announced on Wednesday that it would keep interest rates unchanged, and with the policy meeting revealing the most significant division in 30 years, market expectations for a near-term rate cut were instantly dampened. Bitcoin fell below $75,000, with most major cryptocurrencies following suit. The FOMC ultimately voted 8 to 4 to maintain the federal funds rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. However, the four dissenting members showed rare disagreement: Stephan Miran advocated for an immediate rate cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, despite agreeing to keep rates unchanged, opposed the dovish language in the statement. The Fed stated in its post-meeting release that inflation remains high due to rising global energy prices. Furthermore, recent developments in Middle East geopolitics have added "high uncertainty" to the future economic outlook. Following the interest rate decision, Bitcoin plunged from $76,000 to $75,000, though it has since recovered to $76,227 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, ETH, Solana (SOL), and XRP continued their earlier declines, hitting two-week lows. "Rate Cut Party" Over? In fact, the market was already prepared for this "no rate cut" decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market had priced in a nearly 100% probability of "no change" before the meeting. Analysts pointed out that the real culprit behind the market volatility was the severe division among committee members and the conservative tone of the post-meeting statement. Matt Mena, a senior research strategist at crypto asset management firm 21Shares, commented: The Fed standing pat was not unexpected, but those members firmly opposed to signaling any easing effectively poured cold water on the "rate cut party" the market was hoping for. For the past few months, the "rate cut dream" on Wall Street and in the crypto space has revolved around Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The market believes that this former Fed Governor is more flexible and open to rate cuts than current Chair Jerome Powell. Earlier on Wednesday, Warsh's nomination successfully passed a key vote in the Senate Banking Committee and is now headed for a full Senate vote. Powell stated on Wednesday that after his term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, he will remain in his position as a Governor, though the duration is yet to be determined. He reiterated that he would not leave unless the "criminal investigation" into the Fed demonstrates transparency and is brought to a complete end. Powell's decision to "step down but not leave" means that Trump will be unable to appoint a new Governor, which will directly limit the government's ability to intervene in Fed policy. Powell's term as a Fed Governor will last until January 2028, coinciding with the end of Trump's presidential term. Fed Policy Not the Only Focus However, some analysts believe that the Fed's interest rate decision is no longer the only script driving Bitcoin prices. Iggy Ioppe, CIO at investment firm Theo, pointed out: The more critical catalyst for Bitcoin right now is not the FOMC, but the Clarity Act. He explained that this bill, which is vital to the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market, would not only formally define Bitcoin as a digital commodity under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, eliminating the risk of overreach by the SEC, but also provide a safe harbor for banks. This would allow financial institutions to hold crypto assets without facing punitive capital requirements. Currently, the bill is still under congressional review, but progress has been temporarily stalled due to disputes over stablecoin provisions and ethical controversies. Additionally, analysts warned that the upcoming earnings reports from the "Mag 7" tech giants—such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—are key variables that could influence risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term. Sygnum Bank investment strategist Can-Luca Köymen stated: "As long as these tech giants disappoint the market regarding AI monetization or financial guidance, this sentiment could be rapidly amplified, potentially offsetting any policy direction set by Fed Chair Powell."

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