BTC funding rates have been negative for two consecutive weeks, failing to break through $77,800. Compared to the rock-solid whale long-short ratio, are you scared yet?

Bitcoin slipped to test $76,000 this week after being rejected at $77,800, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining negative for two consecutive weeks, signaling rising demand for short leverage. However, Coinglass data shows that the long/short ratio of top traders on Binance and OKX has remained almost unchanged over the past week, indicating that whales have not shifted to increase short positions. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but four dissenting votes marked the first such occurrence since 1992. The Iran conflict reached its 60th day, pushing oil prices toward $118, with macroeconomic uncertainty remaining the biggest variable. (Previous coverage: K33: Bitcoin funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days, a short squeeze storm may be brewing) (Background supplement: JPMorgan: Bitcoin's "risk-adjusted" attractiveness beats gold, with long-term explosive potential beyond imagination). Is the top really back? On Wednesday, Bitcoin faced selling pressure again at $77,800, subsequently falling to a low of $75,000, with the trend highly synchronized with the S&P 500 index struggling near 7,200 points. As the Iran conflict enters its 60th day, international crude oil prices are approaching $118 per barrel. High energy costs are eroding corporate logistics profits and compressing consumer purchasing power, while market concerns regarding the return on investment for AI in tech companies continue to heat up—these macroeconomic backgrounds have left Bitcoin bulls lacking momentum after breaking through $78,000. However, an intuitive question arises: is the negative funding rate a sign of true short dominance, or is the market simply waiting and watching? Laevitas funding rate charts show that the annualized funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts turned negative again on Wednesday and has mostly remained in the negative range over the past two weeks. In a healthy bull market, funding rates should typically stay between 6% and 12% annualized, with bulls paying fees to maintain leveraged positions; when the rate turns negative, it means short leverage demand exceeds long demand, and market sentiment is bearish in the short term. It briefly returned to a neutral-to-bullish range on Tuesday but slipped again after only one day—this "sell the rally" rhythm has indeed left bulls lacking confidence. However, funding rates only reflect marginal sentiment in the derivatives market. To assess the true stance of large players, one must compare comprehensive long/short ratio data across spot, margin, and futures positions. Coinglass data shows that the long/short ratio of top traders on Binance was 0.80 on Wednesday, a slight improvement from 0.75 on Tuesday. Although still slightly bearish, the direction is converging rather than expanding. On the OKX side, top traders briefly flipped long several times this week, but these signals did not last long. Overall, the whale long/short ratio has not shown a systematic decline over the past week, and there are no obvious signs of large players increasing short positions. The Fed stated after its April 29 policy meeting that "inflation has been partially pushed up by recent increases in global energy prices and remains at an elevated level." The FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the level set for the end of 2025, but four members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut—the first time there have been four dissenting votes since October 1992. This signal itself is open to dual interpretation: on one hand, four votes for a rate cut indicate that some officials feel the downward pressure on the economy; on the other hand, the majority chose to stand pat, meaning inflation remains the primary concern. For Bitcoin, the transmission chain of "high oil prices → persistent inflation → extended Fed tightening expectations" has suppressed the appetite for risk assets in the short term. Uncertainty in the tech earnings season is also a major variable: if the returns on AI capital expenditures by large tech companies are lower than expected, it will directly impact market confidence in the "tech-driven growth" narrative, thereby affecting Bitcoin's trend as a risk asset. While retail and derivatives market sentiment remains cautious, Strategy (MSTR) has continued to purchase 56,235 BTC over the past four weeks, funding the acquisition through the issuance of its perpetual preferred securities, STRC. According to the company's latest disclosure, Strategy currently holds 818,334 BTC, surpassing the holdings of BlackRock's IBIT spot ETF. Amidst negative funding rates and a lack of bullish confidence, institutional-level buying continues systematically—this suggests that the current cautious sentiment is more akin to "waiting for a catalyst" rather than a true trend reversal. The next step for Bitcoin depends on the answers to two questions: Can the Fed provide a rate cut signal