Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC

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Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC Data suggest Bitcoin’s chance of dropping below $60,000 again is slim to none, thanks to longer-term investors holding more than 71% of the asset’s total supply. The chance of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $60,000 is “extremely slim,” according to data showing that BTC long-term holders increased their holdings to 71.6% of the total supply. In addition to this data, a key technical signal turned bullish for the first time since February. BTC price may avoid fresh new lows, says analyst Crypto analyst Sykodelic said the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting fresh lows has “become extremely slim” after the weekly relative strength index (RS) retested the 50 level. Historically, Bitcoin has entered long-term expansion phases after the RSI recovered above that threshold following an oversold position. BTC/USD, one-week chart, and RSI analysis. Source: Skykodelic/X The latest move came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI entered oversold territory for only the fourth time on record. Skykodelic noted that the 2022 cycle was the lone exception in which Bitcoin later formed new lows, largely due to the FTX exchange collapse, and forced a market-wide drawdown. In that period, the RSI never retested 50 during the recovery attempt. BTC long-term holders (LTHs) are also leaning in the same direction. Crypto analyst CryptoZeno said Bitcoin’s one-year-plus holder metric has returned to the historical “oversold” accumulation zone that preceded major upside cycles in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022. BTC long-term holders (1+ year) metric. Source: X CryptoZeno said earlier that market cycle highs in 2021 and 2017 usually formed when LTH holder distribution accelerated. The current readings instead point to a steady accumulation and a tighter available supply of BTC. Onchain data supports that trend. Long-term Bitcoin supply climbed back above 15.04 million BTC for the first time since Oct. 1, 2025, accounting for 71.6% of the circulating supply. BTC long-term holder flow. Source: CryptoQuant BTC miners are cautious amid bottom formation Crypto analyst Pelin Ay said BTC miner activity still points to cautious positioning despite the strong LTH holder data. Binance pool miner reserves dropped to 41,915 from 41,987 in May, indicating a steady supply entering Binance. Speaking on the importance of Binance pool miner reserve data, Ay said, “Since Binance Pool represents a major share of the global hash rate, its behavior often reflects overall miner psychology before the broader market reacts. Falling reserves usually indicate that operational selling pressure is still continuing.” BTC Puell Multiple and Binance pool miner reserve. Source: CryptoQuant Miner Position Index (MPI) readings remain below historical panic-selling levels, while the Puell Multiple stays under 1, signaling continued revenue pressure across mining operations. The analyst described the behavior as a “wait phase” often seen near bottom formations. More on the subject

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