Bulls want bitcoin back above $80,000. Macro says not so fast.

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Bitcoin The most important is the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, which showed the consumer sentiment index falling to an all-time low of 49.8 this month, largely driven by inflationary pressures tied to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations also moved sharply higher, with the one-year gauge surging to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month. Long-term expectations (five to 10 years) have risen to 3.5%, the highest reading since October 2025. This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already. Inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, which is why central banks like the Federal Reserve monitor them closely and try to anchor them. The sharp rise, therefore, could limit the Fed’s ability to signal interest-rate cuts or liquidity easing in the near term, as additional monetary easing risks reinforcing inflationary pressures. That hawkish tilt could, in turn, cap upside or slow gains in BTC and other risk assets. “For the Federal Reserve, the long-term expectations move is the more dangerous data point. It is the variable the central bank watches most closely when assessing whether inflation psychology is becoming unanchored, and a one-month shift of this size raises the bar for any near-term easing pivot, even as the real economy weakens at the margin,” analysts at Bitfinex said. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday. In the meantime, traders are also pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. “Rate hikes this month are looking improbable, according to current market opinion. Financial bets suggest we may see more than two rate increases in the eurozone and the U.K. before year-end. A June hike is almost fully priced in. We are now lacking clarity in the data to make good decisions, and that is the main impediment,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email. On the crypto-specific side, sustained ETF inflows remain crucial to keeping spot BTC supported on dips. Meanwhile, coordinated industry efforts to contain fallout from the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 0.5% over 24 hours, decoupling from the CoinDesk 20’s 1.5% decline. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead." What’s trending - Industry leaders are pouring hundreds of millions into a rescue plan for Aave users after massive crypto hack (CoinDesk): Aave, one of DeFi’s largest lending protocols, is at the center of a broad recovery effort following losses tied to the Kelp DAO exploit, revealing an unusual level of coordination. - Three Bank of Japan members call for a rate hike; yen rises while bitcoin falls (CoinDesk): The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected. The decision, however, wasn't unanimous. The yen is loving it, and bitcoin remains under pressure. - Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts blockade, reports claim (euronews): Iran offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade on the Islamic Republic in a proposal that would postpone discussions on Tehran's nuclear program. - Brent oil prices top $111 per barrel as traders weigh Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal (CNBC): Brent crude futures with June delivery traded 2.7% higher at $111.09 per barrel, extending gains after settling higher for its sixth consecutive positive session on Monday. West Texas Intermediate futures with June delivery advanced 2.2% at $98.50. Today’s signal The chart shows bitcoin's hourly price swings in candlestick format since late March. BTC has dived out of an ascending trendline (white dashed line) that guided its upward trajectory since early this month. Moreover, prices are trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages. That configuration points to uptrend exhaustion and scope for a deeper price pullback. The bullish case would reassert itself if prices reclaim both moving averages. More For You What you need to know for April 27, 2026 What to know: - The bitcoin price failed to break above $80,000 as concentrated sell orders capped gains despite strong ETF inflows and fresh stablecoin liquidity. - Onchain data show billions of dollars in new stablecoin deposits and robust spot bitcoin ETF demand, suggesting sidelined capital could fuel further upside once resistance is cleared. - Mounting...

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