Bitcoin long-short battle! Glassnode report: Spot and futures markets face selling pressure, but ETF buying and long-term holders "hold the line"

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Is the BTC trend stuck in a quagmire? The latest Week 17 "BTC Market Pulse" report from Glassnode has been released, revealing a complex structure currently filled with "contradictions" in the market. Despite a significant increase in selling pressure in spot and derivatives markets and rising bearish sentiment, strong inflows into US spot BTC ETFs and the rock-solid confidence of Long-Term Holders (LTH) are providing a powerful buffer against the downside for the broader market. (Previous coverage: MicroStrategy is hot! MicroStrategy spent $2.54 billion to add 34,000 BTC, with total holdings exceeding 815,000 BTC) (Background supplement: With geopolitical risks persisting, why has BTC become a key liquidity target?) The report indicates that investor behavior and market structure are emitting mixed signals of both bullish and bearish sentiment. The BTC market has recently exhibited an extremely complex game structure. According to the latest "BTC Market Pulse: Week 17" analysis report released by Glassnode, although BTC's recent upward price momentum has weakened slightly, the market still maintains strong buying interest, which serves as an important buffer to prevent a crash in coin prices. In terms of Centralized Exchanges (CEX), trading activity has clearly heated up, showing that market participation remains active. However, detailed data reveals concerns for the short term: - Increased spot selling pressure: The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in the spot market has turned from positive to negative, signaling an increase in selling pressure and a trend toward bearish market sentiment. - High willingness to short derivatives: In the futures contract market, the increase in Open Interest (OI) represents rising risk appetite and price sensitivity. However, the significant decline in "Long Funding Rates" and the sharp drop in "Perpetual Contract CVD" indicate that buyer aggression is weakening; traders are even willing to pay a premium to establish short positions, and bearish sentiment is fermenting. Unlike the pessimistic atmosphere in the spot and futures markets, the options and ETF sectors have brought good news to stabilize the market. In the options market, investor demand for "downside protection" has decreased, suggesting that extreme bearish sentiment is softening. The contraction in Open Interest may stem from profit-taking or position closing; meanwhile, the Volatility spread shows that market sentiment is transitioning from "high-risk pricing" to a more neutral, stable period. In the ETF sector, which is most closely watched by traditional finance, the MVRV ratio and Netflow of US spot ETFs have both risen. Combined with increasing trading activity, these data points indicate that institutional investors' willingness to participate in BTC through compliant channels remains strong, injecting "cautiously optimistic" momentum into the market. Looking at on-chain liquidity and profitability, the market structure remains healthy and balanced: - Stable chip structure: The decline in Hot Capital Share and the change in Realized Cap (though negative, it is improving) show that liquid funds are leaning toward a dormant state, and net outflows are slowing down. At the same time, the STH to LTH Supply Ratio remains stable, proving that Long-Term Holders (LTH) are full of confidence in the future market and have not engaged in panic selling. - Divergence in profit and loss data: The improvement in Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and the percentage of supply in profit sends a potential signal of a "stabilization phase," where immediate selling pressure has eased. However, the report also warns that the decline in the "Realized Profit to Loss Ratio" indicates that some panic-driven capitulation selling still exists in the market. In summary, BTC is in a tug-of-war phase between bearish derivatives and institutional spot buying. With the firm support of Long-Term Holders and the continuous infusion of ETF capital, the market is expected to see a clearer direction after digesting short-term selling pressure.

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