Bitcoin hits $79,000 only to be brutally liquidated, falling below "2 key indicators" signals downside risk

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After a long consolidation period of two and a half months, Bitcoin recently attempted a breakout, but today (23rd) it once again fell below the $78,000 mark, standing at a critical watershed of "gaining and losing." Whether this battle around two key resistance levels is a period of volatility building momentum for the next explosion, or another false breakout followed by a retreat, the market is holding its breath. CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten stated that the highlight of this long-short showdown lies in the "dual pressure zone" intertwined by two on-chain indicators; whether it can break through and stabilize will determine if the subsequent rally continues. James Van Straten pointed out that the first key data point the market is closely watching is the "True Market Mean," which sits right at $78,200. This indicator reflects the average purchase cost of the "active circulating supply" in the market, excluding lost, idle, or economically inactive Bitcoin, and only tracks the holding costs of actual market participants, thus more accurately pinpointing where actual selling pressure might emerge. As for the second hurdle, it is the "Short-Term Holder Realized Price" located at $79,200, which is the average purchase cost for investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. James Van Straten explained that these short-term traders are extremely sensitive to price fluctuations and prone to following market trends. Currently, Bitcoin remains below their average cost, meaning these holders are in a state of "being trapped" with slight losses. As soon as the price rises, selling pressure from those eager to break even is likely to emerge. Looking back at mid-January this year, Bitcoin attempted to challenge the short-term holder cost line, which was then near $98,000, but ultimately failed and was ruthlessly suppressed. Last night (22nd), Bitcoin briefly broke through the $79,200 Short-Term Holder Realized Price, but selling pressure subsequently emerged, causing a reversal. By today (23rd), it had already fallen below the $78,000 "True Market Mean," dropping to $77,686 at the time of writing, once again confirming the heavy pressure of these two levels. Looking ahead, if the bulls can launch a fierce attack and successfully break through and stabilize above this resistance zone, these two resistance levels will turn into solid support, further igniting bullish momentum in the market. Conversely, if it fails to reclaim this lost ground, Bitcoin may continue to be mired in a long consolidation period, and the risk of another downward probe cannot be ruled out.

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ID:7db4c7deaf

Source:區塊客

Published:2026-04-23 02:43:59

Category:bearish · Export Category bearish

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