Revenue surged 42%, prediction markets make their debut! Gemini's after-hours stock price soars 30%

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As cryptocurrency spot trading slumped, Gemini—the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss brothers—has carved out a path forward through "diversified transformation." According to its latest first-quarter earnings report, Gemini's strong 42% year-over-year revenue growth, along with impressive first-time disclosed figures from its prediction markets, drove after-hours shares to surge as much as 30%. The earnings report showed that Gemini's total Q1 revenue reached $50.3 million, up 42% from $35.3 million in the same period last year. This robust growth momentum was primarily driven by its services, growth in over-the-counter (OTC) trading business, and an explosive performance from the crypto-linked Gemini credit card. Prediction Markets Debut, Transforming into an "All-in-One Market" Notably, since its launch last December, Gemini disclosed prediction market operating figures separately in its earnings report for the first time, with the business contributing $400,000 in revenue. While this figure is still hard to compare with prediction market giants like Polymarket or Kalshi (which have daily trading volumes between $300,000 and $500,000), Gemini emphasized that more than 20,000 users are currently trading on the platform, with cumulative contract trading volume exceeding 100 million. Additionally, the company released a preview of its strong April performance, with prediction market trading volume surging another 78% month-over-month—growth potential that should not be underestimated. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss stated in the announcement: "We've achieved multiple product and regulatory milestones, allowing Gemini to transform from a pure cryptocurrency company into a market company." Gemini is currently working hard to shed its reliance on spot trading, extending its reach into the derivatives market. In April this year, the company successfully obtained a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing Gemini to handle derivatives settlement, collateral, and risk management in-house, without relying on third-party institutions. Gemini revealed that the DCO license will drive the company to accelerate the creation of a "one-stop, full-stack trading platform" covering prediction markets, futures, options, and perpetual contracts. To demonstrate absolute confidence in the company's prospects, Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss also simultaneously announced a $100 million investment in Gemini through their Winklevoss Capital Fund, paid entirely in Bitcoin. Shrinking Trading Volume Raises Concerns; Staking and Credit Cards Become the "Cash Cow" Despite strong revenue growth momentum, the earnings report also revealed the growing pains of industry transformation. Constrained by sluggish cryptocurrency trading, Gemini's Q1 trading volume was cut in half from $13.5 billion in the same period last year to $6.3 billion, causing exchange-related revenue to fall 27%. As a result, Gemini posted a Q1 net loss of $109 million. In the face of sluggish trading volumes, the real "cash cow" propping up the situation was instead the services and interest segment—including credit cards, staking, and asset custody—where revenue soared 120% to $24.5 million, contributing nearly half of total revenue. The credit card business alone contributed $14.7 million, surging 300% from the same period last year, becoming the biggest hero in driving Q1's countertrend breakthrough.

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