Gemini Gains Key CFTC Approval to Expand Prediction Market, Perps Offerings

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In brief - Gemini received CFTC approval for a DCO license, allowing it to clear its own prediction market and derivatives trades. - The move opens the door for Gemini to expand into complex products like perpetual futures. - The approval comes as Gemini pivots toward prediction markets amid layoffs, lawsuits, and an ongoing regulatory battle. Crypto exchange Gemini announced Thursday it has received approval for a key license from the CFTC, allowing the company to act as a clearinghouse for its derivatives-related business. The license, to operate as a Derivatives Clearing Organization, or DCO, will allow Gemini to settle prediction market wagers and other derivatives trades in-house, as opposed to relying on an authorized third-party. That control will hand the company greater ability to shape its offerings and potentially expand into more complex products like perpetual futures, riskier wagers on commodities with no end date. “Gemini now has a full-stack, end-to-end marketplace for predictions as well as futures, options, and more,” the company’s co-founder, Cameron Winklevoss, said Thursday in a post on X. “This is also a major building block for our super app, where users will be able to fulfill their existing and future financial needs all in one place,” he continued. Gemini is not the first crypto or prediction-market focused company to obtain a DCO. Prediction market giant Kalshi has had one since 2024; rival Polymarket acquired a company with a DCO last summer; and Crypto.com received approval for the license in the fall. Earlier this month, the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken moved to acquire a company already in possession of a DCO, Bitnomial, for $550 million. After Gemini’s approval, which was finalized yesterday, there are now only 22 companies in the United States with DCO approval. That figure highlights both the relative scarcity of the licenses, as well as the degree to which prediction market-focused companies are quickly coming to define the far greater derivatives market under the CFTC’s purview. Gemini said earlier this year that it would increase its focus on prediction markets, after laying off more than a quarter of its staff and fully exiting the European and Australian markets. The company has since faced a class-action lawsuit regarding the shift, and was also sued by New York earlier this month for $1.2 billion, over alleged violation of state gambling laws. The New York suit was quickly parried by a countersuit from the CFTC, which has argued prediction market platforms like Gemini cannot be regulated under state gambling law and instead fall exclusively under the federal regulator’s jurisdiction. Gemini (GEMI) shares have jumped more than 6% since the opening bell Thursday, recently trading at $4.40. Shares have recovered by 9% over the last month, though are still down over 55% since the start of the year.

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