Shocking news! The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1st, signaling a potential increase in oil production that could trigger a global price war.

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A huge rift has emerged in the crude oil pricing alliance! The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced today (28th) that it will officially withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1. The UAE Minister of Energy emphasized that in order to meet the massive future global demand for energy, the country will gradually increase oil production after its withdrawal. As the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, this move by the UAE will not only completely break free from the shackles of production quotas but may also trigger a price war among oil-producing nations, weakening the control of OPEC+ over global oil prices. (Previous coverage: UAE Central Bank warns the US about "Dollar Rescue": If you can't provide it, we will switch to RMB for oil sales; Petrodollar faces its most direct challenge) (Background supplement: Trump changes tune on blocking the Strait of Hormuz: US oil production exceeds Russia and Saudi Arabia combined, "The world can just buy from us," no ships need to pass through Hormuz) As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, the landscape of the global energy market has once again undergone a historic upheaval. According to the latest flash news from the well-known financial news account Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone), citing the Emirates News Agency (WAM), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has officially announced that it will fully withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader alliance of oil-producing nations (OPEC+) on May 1 of this year. UAE SAYS IT QUITS OPEC AND OPEC+ -STATEMENT UAE SAYS IT WILL LEAVE OPEC AND OPEC+ AS OF MAY 1 – STATE NEWS AGENCY — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 28, 2026 The UAE Minister of Energy confirmed the news in an interview with Reuters. He emphasized that the UAE has long been a loyal member of OPEC and OPEC+, but after a careful review of the energy sector, the oil industry, and the country's overall strategy, this difficult decision was made: "Looking to our future, we see that the world will need more energy." The Minister of Energy stated that withdrawing from OPEC will help the UAE flexibly meet changing global demand and clearly signaled that the country will "gradually increase oil production." The core operating mechanism of OPEC and OPEC+, which was established in 2016, is to limit member production by setting "quotas" to avoid oversupply and stabilize oil prices. Currently, OPEC+ controls approximately 40% of global crude oil production. However, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC (with a daily output of approximately 3 to 4 million barrels), the UAE has long been dissatisfied with strict quota restrictions. The UAE possesses significant "spare capacity" and has invested heavily in recent years to enhance its extraction capabilities, with the goal of reaching a milestone of 5 million barrels per day. In the past, the UAE has had public friction with the alliance's leader, Saudi Arabia, over benchmark quota issues. Now choosing to go solo, the UAE will be able to completely break free from the organization's shackles and fully unleash its production potential to earn an estimated billions of dollars in additional annual revenue, while responding more flexibly to the massive demand brought about by AI industry expansion and energy transition. The decision of the UAE to withdraw from OPEC+ is expected to have a profound impact on the global market and geopolitics: - Short-term oil price volatility: The UAE's announcement of gradual production increases will theoretically significantly increase global crude oil supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices. However, considering the current high geopolitical risks and blockades in the Middle East (such as the Strait of Hormuz), these two opposing forces may pull against each other, leading to severe short-term fluctuations in oil prices. - OPEC+ influence faces a test: The withdrawal of a core member is undoubtedly a huge rift within the alliance. This not only weakens the future ability of OPEC+ to coordinate production cuts to support oil prices but also increases uncertainty in the global energy market. - Concerns over a medium-to-long-term price war: If the UAE's significant production increase triggers "market share anxiety" in Saudi Arabia or other member states, a repeat of past production competition and price wars cannot be ruled out, which would be a major blow to high-cost oil-producing countries that rely on high oil prices to support their fiscal budgets. - Geopolitical reshaping: By breaking free from the constraints of OPEC, although the UAE may face strained relations with Saudi Arabia, it will also gain greater autonomy in diplomacy and energy trade, further improving its relations with Western countries such as the US.

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