Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Not Dead, Benjamin Cowen Says BTC Bottom Likely in October 2026

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Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is alive and well, says Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse. The current top arrived within a week of historical timing, and the next bottom should follow in Q4 2026. The analyst dismisses claims that spot ETFs, corporate treasury demand, and a Bitcoin reserve narrative have broken the pattern. Every previous cycle saw similar narratives fail before the bear market arrived anyway. Topped When It Always Tops In a new video, the founder of Cryptoverse pushed back on the wave of analysts declaring the cycle dead. “Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead.” The two previous cycles topped on day 1,059 and day 1,168 from the prior low. The current cycle topped on day 1,162. Bitcoin trades near $75,650, down about 40% from its October 6 record of $126,080. Apathy Top Does Not Cancel a Bear Market Critics argue Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, breaking the historical pattern. Cowen turned to S&P 500 data from 1962 to 1982. He says the four-year low cycle held even when index tops looked nothing like a blow-off. “Topping on apathy doesn’t mean you don’t have a bear market, because you can see how in the past the stock market topped on apathy arguably and it still had a bear market.” He sees the current counter-trend rally as weaker than the 46% bounce off the 2022 low. The 16-week run also sits inside the 15 to 25 week range seen in prior midterm-year recoveries. Benjamin Cowen: The Invalidation Scenario Cowen acknowledges the call could be wrong, but argues the burden of proof sits with the bulls. “To pretend like it’s different this time because of some narrative on Wall Street would be the same mistake that people fell for last cycle and the cycle before that.” Even in a softer outcome, he expects Bitcoin to revisit $60,000 later this year. Any durable bull market would only resume after that test. His base case for the cyclical low is October 2026. That aligns with the midterm year pattern seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022. It also matches recent analyst predictions for the same bottoming window.

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