Analyst Warning: Ethereum Target Price Only 1,800, Hitting a 13-Month Low

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Ethereum's Total Value Locked (TVL) has been cut in half from its $25.8 billion peak to $11.6 billion, with the mainnet and L2 networks shrinking in tandem. On the technical side, a bear pennant has formed on the daily chart, and if the key support at $2,060 breaks, ETH's price could decline further into the $1,800 range. (Background: How much is Ethereum actually worth? Hashed offers 10 different ETH valuation methods in one go) (Context: The survival fold of L2s: 8 chains divide the world, hundreds of players accelerate the shakeup, but centralization concerns surface) Ether (ETH) has retraced more than 13% since breaking through its multi-month high of $2,400 in early February, falling below the rising trendline that had supported the price since the start of the year. Technical analyst Chain Mind, in a video posted on X, stated that ETH is currently at a "critical moment," and if it fails to reclaim the support level, the price will dive directly below $1,800. The ETH/USD daily chart has now formed a classic "bear pennant" technical pattern. This pattern typically appears during a consolidation phase following a sharp price drop, indicating that selling pressure is accumulating. Once the price breaks below the lower trendline at $2,060, the bear pennant is confirmed. According to technical analysis, after a bear pennant completes, the price decline typically equals the height of the previous leg down. By this calculation, the downside target for ETH/USD lands near $1,800, roughly 14% below the current price. Crypto analyst Alex Marzell expressed a similar view, noting that if ETH breaks below $2,050, it would significantly increase the probability of moving toward the $1,800 support zone. If even that support fails, the short-term downside target could drop further to $1,750. Update on the $ETH chart: The $2,050 support box has NOT been lost yet. Bulls are still defending the zone for now, which keeps the structure alive short term. But the warning remains the same: If ETH loses this area convincingly, the move toward the $1,800 support zone could… pic.twitter.com/F9obI73QXr — Alex Marzell (@MarzellCrypto) May 25, 2026 The technical weakness is not an isolated phenomenon. Ethereum's Total Value Locked (TVL) has now dropped to $11.6 billion, returning to levels seen in April 2025. Compared to the all-time high of $25.8 billion set on August 14, 2025, TVL has fallen by more than 55%, nearly cut in half. The TVL decline reflects on-chain capital withdrawing from Ethereum DeFi protocols. When investors pull funds out of decentralized finance protocols, it typically signals three things: first, declining yields; second, capital rotating to other chains or asset classes; and third, an overall reduction in market risk appetite. This TVL decline coincides with signals such as consecutive senior departures from the Ethereum Foundation and weakening community sentiment. Dissatisfaction within the Ethereum community over L2 over-commercialization is also intensifying, and an independent team has launched Ethereum R1, advocating that L2s should be decentralized and not issue tokens. The TVL decline on L2 networks has been even steeper than on the mainnet. Taking Ether.fi as an example, its TVL has dropped 32% over the past 30 days. Crypto data platform CryptoRank, in a Monday analysis report published on Telegram, pointed out that the sustained TVL decline in the L2 space has become a structural trend: - Arbitrum down 63% - zkSync down 64% - Linea has plummeted 98% CryptoRank's analysis stated that this dramatic correction "reflects the sensitivity of high liquidity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanisms," adding: "This reinforces the overall picture of fragmented capital across the Ethereum Rollup ecosystem, and also shakes the 'unified liquidity pool' effect envisioned by early L2 development models." The decline in liquidity for Ethereum L2s can be traced back to a simple economic model: most L2 TVL does not come from organic user demand but relies on incentive programs to attract liquidity providers. When incentives are reduced or terminated, TVL rapidly evaporates. This pattern is particularly evident in the Ethereum L2 ecosystem. Arbitrum, zkSync, and Linea each have different token reward mechanisms, but when these programs enter the "harvest phase," L2s are effectively competing with each other for a limited liquidity pool. This contrasts with single-chain strategies like Solana, which relies on a single mainnet ecosystem to aggregate liquidity, resulting in higher TVL concentration and relatively lower volatility. For Taiwanese investors, this ETH pullback also serves as a reminder: DeFi yields are no longer as easy to obtain as they were in 2024-2025. If you currently hold ETH or L2 ecosystem liquidity, it is recommended to keep an eye on the critical support level of $2,060, as a break below could trigger a cascade of liquidations.

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Published:2026-05-26 09:54:46

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