21Shares CIO: Bitcoin "liquidity rivals Nvidia," eyes $100,000 by year-end! Traditional "altseason" may be a thing of the past

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21Shares Head of Research Adrian Fritz recently stated in an interview that the daily trading volume of Bitcoin has surpassed $50 billion, with liquidity comparable to Nvidia, effectively eliminating concerns from traditional institutional investors. He predicts that if geopolitical tensions cool and macroeconomic conditions align, BTC could reach the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. Notably, he warned that the traditional "Altcoin season" may be a thing of the past, as institutional capital will only favor fundamental projects with real revenue in the future. (Previous coverage: Bitcoin faces a showdown this week with the FOMC meeting and tech earnings! QCP: If BTC breaks through $82,000, the CME gap could target the $90,000 mark) (Background: Bitcoin trading volume freezes to a "two-year low"! Market depth shrinks as major macro events loom, volatility could strike at any time) Although Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling below the $80,000 level recently, inflows into spot ETFs on Wall Street and rising institutional adoption are sending strong, contrasting bullish signals. 21Shares Head of Research Adrian Fritz pointed out during a recent appearance on CoinDesk's Public Keys show that the continued expansion of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is cementing its core position in traditional investment portfolios. In the past, a lack of liquidity was the biggest pain point for traditional finance's skepticism toward cryptocurrencies. However, Fritz emphasized that this obstacle has been completely cleared. Data shows that Bitcoin's current daily trading volume often exceeds $50 billion, a scale comparable to mega-cap stocks like Nvidia. Fritz noted that the ETF structure provides Bitcoin with dual liquidity in both primary and secondary markets, truly meeting the standard of being "institutional ready." Year-to-date, spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed nearly $2 billion in capital, with demand primarily coming from retail investors, institutions, and hedge funds utilizing arbitrage and options strategies. With major asset managers like Morgan Stanley accelerating their entry, more portfolio managers are beginning to look past Bitcoin's volatility and view it as a viable multi-asset allocation target. Fritz believes this steady accumulation of capital indicates a "structural" shift in market demand, rather than short-term speculative hype. From a macro perspective, macroeconomic forces continue to dominate the trajectory of the crypto market. Investors are closely monitoring Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Fed's interest rate decisions, and crude oil prices (which could pressure risk assets if they surge above $100). However, Fritz expects that after a short-term consolidation, Bitcoin could still head toward the $100,000 mark by year-end if conditions align. Below are several potential catalysts that could drive the price past $80,000: - Geopolitical cooling: Any resolution to global conflicts would significantly boost market risk appetite. - Short squeeze: Perpetual contract funding rates are currently negative; once the price breaks upward, it could easily trigger a "short squeeze" effect. - Key technical breakout: A strong breakout above the 200-day moving average (currently in the $85,000 to $90,000 range) would signal a strong trend reversal. - Continued ETF inflows: Steady inflows into ETFs remain the core driver of structural demand. For investors who prefer to hunt for small-cap coins, Fritz also issued a stern warning: not all crypto assets will benefit from this wave of institutional adoption. He stated bluntly that the traditional "Altcoin season," where "all junk coins rise whenever Bitcoin rises," may not return in its previous form. Today's institutional investors are adopting more "fundamental-driven" strategies. Projects like Hyperliquid, which possess real revenue and cash flow, are increasingly favored by traditional institutions. Conversely, if underlying projects cannot prove their fundamental strength, weaker Altcoin ETFs may even face the risk of closure and liquidation.

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