Will SpaceX IPO drain the risk market? $22 billion in retail quota may siphon off Bitcoin buying pressure

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SpaceX has filed an S-1 document with the SEC, preparing to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation in June. This would be 2.5 times the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019, making it the largest IPO in history. Analysts warn that with OpenAI and Anthropic also expected to go public in the second half of the year, the "Big Three" could drain over $240 billion in venture capital by year-end, putting crypto market liquidity to a stress test. (Previous coverage: The greatest wealth-creation IPO in history is about to begin: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic lead the way) (Background: Musk's SpaceX transferred nearly 3,700 BTC twice in three days; preparing for liquidation or secret positioning?) Musk's aerospace company, SpaceX, filed a confidential S-1 document with the SEC on April 1, targeting a June listing. The company intends to allocate 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors. The $22 billion retail scramble The 30% quota amounts to approximately $22 billion, which is three times the typical level for an IPO of this scale. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen explicitly told underwriters that retail participation is "key" to this offering, which will be the largest in history. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs are leading the underwriting, with 16 other banks responsible for institutional, retail, and international placements. SpaceX also plans to invite approximately 1,500 retail investors to a special event after the roadshow begins in June. There is a high probability that this $22 billion will be diverted from "certain risk markets," and the crypto market may become a severely wounded target. The "Big Three" to compete for $240 billion by year-end SpaceX is not the only IPO behemoth. OpenAI is now targeting a $1 trillion valuation and plans to raise approximately $100 billion in Q4. Following a Series G round at a $38 billion valuation in February, rumors suggest Anthropic also plans an IPO in October to raise over $60 billion. Combined, the three companies could drain over $240 billion from the market by the end of the year. The measurable signal will fall between May and June. If BTC continues to rise or trades sideways while Wall Street is busy allocating shares for SpaceX, it would imply that spot ETF buying has decoupled crypto assets from traditional risk capital. Conversely, if BTC begins to fall, it could indicate a shift in retail funds.

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Published:2026-04-25 08:44:49

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