Anthropic: The US Must Lead China in AI Models to Safeguard Democracy, Proposes Criminalizing Distillation Attacks

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Anthropic released a research report titled "2028: Two Scenarios for Global AI Dominance," illustrating the importance of democratic regimes maintaining AI leadership through two future scenarios and proposing three major policy recommendations: closing chip smuggling loopholes, restricting distillation attacks, and promoting US AI exports. (Context: Trump did not invite Jensen Huang during his visit to China; Nvidia is trapped in the worst position of "the US doesn't want to sell, and China doesn't want to buy.") (Background: The Semiconductor Century: Investment Roadmap for the 2026 AI Surge) The research report "2028: Two Scenarios for Global AI Dominance" explains the importance of democratic regimes maintaining AI leadership through two futures: if the US maintains a 12-24 month lead, democratic AI will dominate global norms; if the gap narrows, the CCP's authoritarian AI logic will be exported at an accelerated pace. Anthropic released the report on the 14th, proposing three major policy recommendations: closing chip smuggling loopholes, restricting distillation attacks, and promoting US AI exports. Currently, top US AI labs lead their Chinese counterparts by "several months" in frontier models. This gap may seem small, but Anthropic's argument is that these months represent the final buffer before the window closes. The core logic of the report is: "Whichever political system the most advanced AI is born into, that system will determine the norms for the development and deployment of this technology." In plain terms, whoever's AI you use, you live by their rules. The CCP has already used AI technology for mass surveillance, censorship, and cyberattacks, which is a reality clearly documented in the report. Anthropic's concern is: if Chinese AI reaches an equivalent level of capability, this logic will no longer require human enforcers and could implement "automated repression" at a larger scale at the algorithmic level. Furthermore, the gap in computing resources remains significant. Huawei's computing power output in 2026 is estimated to be only 4% of NVIDIA's, dropping further to 2% in 2027. If export controls continue to tighten, the report estimates that the US-accessible computing power will be 11 times that of the Chinese AI industry. The US commercial innovation system, combined with controls on chip manufacturing and exports, currently forms this moat. However, this moat is being eroded. The report identifies three paths to bypass restrictions: chip smuggling and transshipment, accessing restricted computing power through overseas data centers, and "distillation attacks." The logic of distillation attacks is: systematically sending a large number of queries to US models, extracting outputs, and using them to train one's own models—replicating knowledge, not computing power. Anthropic has accused Chinese AI institutions of launching over 16 million queries against Claude using approximately 24,000 fake accounts, a phenomenon now recognized within the Chinese AI development ecosystem. Further reading: What is AI model distillation? How DeepSeek spent 6 million to learn 100 million worth of skills. The core structure of the report is two possible futures. Scenario 1: The US maintains a 12-24 month technological and intelligence advantage. In this version of 2028, democratic AI becomes the underlying infrastructure of the global economy, with norms protecting civil liberties, and the alliance system reinforcing itself around US technology, forming a positive feedback loop. Anthropic believes that in this scenario, the deterrent power of democratic nations against the CCP increases simultaneously: the larger the technological gap, the greater the bargaining leverage. Scenario 2: China continuously narrows the gap through distillation attacks and chip smuggling, eventually approaching technological parity. Even if the models are slightly weaker, the CCP, relying on mandatory domestic deployment policies, rapidly establishes a computing foundation and global market influence; authoritarian AI norms begin to be exported abroad, and democratic nations lose their leverage at the AI governance negotiating table. The fork in the road for these two scenarios is right now. Additionally, DeepSeek R1's 94% compliance rate is an indicative figure. The report also notes that among 13 top Chinese AI labs, only 3 have published safety evaluations; and none have disclosed assessment results for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) risks. In contrast, major US institutions have complete safety transparency disclosures. At the end of the report, Anthropic proposes three specific policy recommendations. Closing loopholes: Tighten enforcement on chip transshipment routes to prevent computing power from bypassing restrictions through third countries or overseas data centers. Technically, this includes stricter end-user verification and joint accountability mechanisms for non-compliant companies. Protecting innovation: Restrict unauthorized model distillation, considering the criminalization of systematic distillation attacks. Simultaneously, further restrict access to frontier AI systems in high-risk markets, including geographic controls at the API

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