After the US blocked the Strait of Hormuz, when will the war end?

📄Full Article· Automatically extracted by trafilaturaGemini 翻譯5512 words

Tactically, this is a "smart" move: without the need for occupation or destruction, the U.S. has directly seized Iran's most effective tool of the past six weeks—control over the Strait of Hormuz—and transformed it into a means of counter-pressure. The blockade also resets the narrative, allowing the U.S. to regain the initiative. However, this is not a war that can be ended by a single "smart move." While the blockade weakens Iran's revenue, it also compresses the space for negotiation; as the chips available for exchange diminish, the conflict is more likely to escalate. This article is sourced from a piece by Garrett, compiled, edited, and written by BlockBeats. (Context: Trump threatens to "wipe Iran off the face of the earth" if they cause more trouble; war extended by 2-3 weeks: UAE intercepts 19 missiles, oil prices surge 5%) (Background: Trump calls Iran's 14-point proposal "unacceptable," Hormuz Strait oil routes in jeopardy, Iraq resumes land-based oil transport) Editor's Note: On April 12, following the collapse of 21 hours of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would blockade all vessels entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the measures would take effect at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, covering all Iranian ports and applying to all countries. At this moment, the world's most important energy chokepoint has undergone a transfer of power. Tactically, this is a "smart" move: without the need for occupation or destruction, the U.S. has directly seized Iran's most effective tool of the past six weeks—control over the Strait of Hormuz—and transformed it into a means of counter-pressure. The blockade also resets the narrative, allowing the U.S. to regain the initiative. However, this is not a war that can be ended by a single "smart move." While the blockade weakens Iran's revenue, it also compresses the space for negotiation; as the chips available for exchange diminish, the conflict is more likely to escalate. A deeper change lies at the level of order. For decades, the U.S. built trust in the global trade and energy system based on "maintaining open shipping lanes"; this time, it has chosen to actively close them. When the "gatekeeper" begins to weaponize shipping lanes, the risk-pricing logic for markets and nations changes accordingly. Therefore, while the blockade may alter short-term gains, it fails to address the fundamental constraints of the conflict. The more likely outcome is a longer war of attrition and the continuous accumulation of tail risks. The following is the original text: Trump has "taken" the Strait of Hormuz. Not through a peace agreement, nor by reopening the shipping lanes, but quite the opposite: he chose to blockade it himself. On Sunday night, after 21 hours of failed negotiations in Islamabad, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, the U.S. Navy will initiate procedures to blockade all vessels attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz." United States Central Command (CENTCOM) subsequently confirmed: the measures will take effect at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, covering all Iranian ports and applying to all countries, without exception. This global energy chokepoint has changed hands. Over the past six weeks, Hormuz had been Iran's weapon. Tehran charged $2 million for every passing vessel, letting allies through while blocking opponents. While neighboring countries saw exports plummet by 80%, Iran earned $139 million daily from oil. Now, this chokepoint is controlled by the U.S. Navy. This is Trump's smartest tactical move in this war, but it is almost certain—it will not work. There is a concept that accurately explains what just happened: the "chokepoint effect." In a global network, whoever controls the key nodes holds the power to exert pressure on all participants who rely on them. Before the war, the U.S. was the guardian of Hormuz. Since WWII, the U.S. Navy has kept the strait open, allowing oil to flow and the global economy to function. This role formed the cornerstone of "Pax Americana," and it is precisely because of this that Southeast Asian nations trusted Washington's "Freedom of Navigation" operations in the South China Sea, and Gulf monarchies were willing to allocate sovereign wealth into U.S. Treasuries. Iran rewrote these rules on February 28. The moment the U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian soil, Tehran chose to close the strait—not completely, but by selectively and strategically controlling

Data Status✓ Full text extractedRead Original (動區 BlockTempo)

🔍Historical Similar Events· Keyword + Asset Matching0 items

No similar events found (requires more data samples or embedding search; currently MVP keyword matching)

Raw Information

ID:c20f9ce2a0

Source:動區 BlockTempo

Published:2026-05-08 12:53:17

Category:zh_news · Export Category zh

Symbols:Unspecified

Community Votes:+0 / −0 · ⭐ 0 Important · 💬 0 Comments