This bear market is different! K33: Market "extreme pessimism" acts as a safety net, Bitcoin's decline has bottomed out

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Since Bitcoin failed to challenge the key moving average at $83,000, the market has once again been filled with fear of "another violent sell-off." However, K33 Research states that compared to the disastrous crashes seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022 after hitting key resistance, the trend in this bear market is completely different. K33 Research believes that although the cryptocurrency market is currently weak, investor sentiment has become so pessimistic that it is near extreme, which in turn limits Bitcoin's downside. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, pointed out in the latest report that in the aforementioned bear market cycles, Bitcoin had violently rebounded to the 200-day moving average, only to collapse again due to the re-accumulation of market leverage and overheated bullish sentiment. He noted: However, the recent slow, oscillating trend has not repeated the script of the past. On the contrary, derivatives data shows that a rare atmosphere of "extreme pessimism" is permeating the market. Funding Rates remain negative for 81 consecutive days Currently, Bitcoin's 30-day average Funding Rate (an indicator of the fees paid by long and short parties to maintain positions) has remained negative for 81 consecutive days, approaching the longest record in history. This means that even though the price of Bitcoin has recovered from the low of nearly $60,000 in February this year, traders' positioning remains biased toward short-side defense. At the same time, the report points out that the CME Bitcoin futures annualized basis (the annualized rate of the price difference between futures and spot prices) has recently fallen below 2.5%. This extremely low level usually only appears during periods of "extreme caution" in the market. Although pessimism has limited the decline and become a current moat against further drops, Vetle Lunde still reminds investors not to take it lightly, as warning signs remain hidden in the market. First, the Open Interest of various Bitcoin derivatives remains at a high level. If the coin price falls further, it may trigger violent volatility again. On the other hand, as Bitcoin encountered resistance near $83,000, the net capital outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs surged, losing $1.6 billion in just 5 days. It is worth noting that the $83,000 level happens to be the average holding cost area for many ETF investors. K33 analyzes that based on historical experience, when investors go through long periods of being trapped, they are often more likely to choose to exit first once the price returns to near their cost basis, and this sign seems to be gradually emerging in the current market. Bottom signal emerges: $60,000 is the largest drawdown of this cycle Nevertheless, K33 observed through its self-developed indicators that the current market trend is not a "bear market rally" like in previous cycles, but is closer to the characteristics of a strong cycle, similar to the period between March and April 2025, when Bitcoin successfully bottomed out amidst the turmoil of Trump's tariff policies, and subsequently soared all the way to reach new historical highs. Based on the above assessment, the K33 team maintains its previous view that the decline to $60,000 in February this year is likely the deepest drawdown of this cycle. Vetle Lunde concluded: The more moderate bull market rally in 2025 has laid the foundation for this relatively mild bear market in 2026.

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Published:2026-05-20 02:33:38

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