Crypto's great hope in Senate's Clarity Act still has a path to survive tight calendar

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Crypto's great hope in Senate's Clarity Act still has a path to survive tight calendar A sideshow stablecoin yield debate has dragged the market structure bill through months of delay, even as the Senate's available floor time diminishes for 2026. What to know: - Some are predicting declining chances for the Clarity Act that would establish U.S. regulations for the crypto industry, but its advocates in the Senate and the industry are focused on the narrow window it still has to become law in 2026. - Sources close to the negotiations say final boxes are being ticked, though another two-week delay seems to have struck while a key Republican keeps negotiating with bankers who've objected to the U.S. treatment of stablecoin rewards programs. - A potential May committee action could keep the legislation on track for a passage by July, though any further delays could kill its chances. April appears to be a lost cause for the crypto Clarity Act, but a U.S. Senate committee hearing sometime in May could keep the critical market structure legislation alive, as long as it can reach a final vote of the overall Senate by July, according to lobbyists and a lawmaker aide focusing on the market structure bill's sluggish progress. The legislative calendar is running out of room for this year, but a Senate aide told CoinDesk that a potential new delay of a couple of weeks — allowing Republican Senator Thom Tillis to finish discussions with bankers over stablecoin-yield concerns — is not yet pushing this work past the point of no return. The aide also said that earlier negotiations over decentralized finance (DeFi) protections are effectively settled, leaving few other impediments in the way of a committee approval. One of the chief problems the crypto industry faces (if it can leap the stubborn hurdle of the banking sector's objections about stablecoin rewards) is that the Senate Banking Committee hearing that the bill needs to clear would be only a first step of many. Here's the scheduling maelstrom the effort is now circling: The Senate will essentially flee Washington in August and be in election mode until the November congressional midterms arrive. It's currently scheduled for about a dozen weeks of DC work before the elections, and it has some pressing matters on its plate during that time, including the funding battle over the Department of Homeland Security, clashes over the Iran war, the debate on voter identification and addressing nominations such as President Donald Trump's pick to run the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. If the bill manages to finally get signoff from the Senate Banking Committee, the text needs to be merged with the version that passed the Senate Agriculture Committee. That merger work is the timing cushion that these current delays are eating into, the aide said. The final legislation would likely be revised further as lawmakers add their final compromise on an ethics piece in which Democrats wanted to limit senior government officials (most pointedly President Trump) from profiting off of crypto interests. The aide said that language is now circulating back and forth on that point but that it won't be in the banking panel's version and would be added later. If they can get past that dispute and another demand about appointing a full slate of commissioners to oversee markets regulation, the bill may win enough Democratic support to pass. Then the House would need to approve it again, because it's very different from the version that chamber already advanced last year. But that would be expected to go quickly, as long as further disagreements don't arise. The last step, Trump's signature, is expected to be the easiest, though he inserted some uncertainty in March when he said he wouldn't sign any bill until he gets legislation approved that would demand voters prove their citizenship before they can cast ballots. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, if approved, would become the second major crypto bill to become law, joining last year's Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. But it's an unresolved stablecoin matter from the GENIUS Act that has delayed progress on the Clarity Act since the start of the year, as bank lobbyists have drawn enough support from senators to back their worry that stablecoin rewards programs could be close enough to deposit yield that it jeopardizes the banks' business model. The debate — far afield from the central aims of the Clarity Act — has raged through White House interventions and tough rhetoric from crypto insiders. Coinbase, which stands to take a substantial hit if stablecoin reward programs are curtailed, has been at the forefront, and Chief Legal Office Paul Grewal posted Tuesday on social media site X with another push. "You can’t be for CLARITY and against rewards," he wrote. "It’s one or the other. Time to choose." Though key Senate negotiators had recently said they had an "agreement in principle" to move forward with a compromise, Republican Senator Tillis told reporters that earlier hopes for April progress was likely slipping into May. The White House has leaned into the crypto position on allowing some rewards that don't look like interest on core bank deposits. "It’s hard to explain any further lobbying by banks on this issue as motivated by anything other than greed or ignorance," Patrick Witt, a top crypto adviser in Trump's White House, said in how own recent posting on X. "Move on." In the current version, insiders say that the compromise has hovered steadily around an approach that would ban payment of yield on any product that looks or acts like insurance on a deposit, but it would still let firms such as Coinbase structure rewards programs that would be more akin to credit-card incentives. But the lawmakers have been shy about releasing text that could spark further negotiation drama, after letting both crypto and banking industry representatives review language last month. "We're too close to let this effort fail," said Cody Carbone, CEO of the Digital Chamber, in a statement to CoinDesk. "A markup must happen to move this forward. It's been three months since it was initially scheduled, and given the progress on all issues, especially the bipartisan stablecoin yield agreement, now is the time." Every day that passes without progress marks a decline in the odds for eventual Clarity Act success. The very next action should be the scheduling of the markup hearing and the sharing of the long-awaited bill text that the negotiators have been wrestling over. "In our view, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 are roughly 50-50, and possibly lower," according to a research note that crypto investment firm Galaxy is planning on publishing this week. "The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the sheer number of unresolved questions that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure." In other words, a single further blowup among the negotiators could be a fatal delay, though the period after the November elections could offer a final low-odds, last-ditch opening. The so-called "lame duck" session of Congress at the end of the year can be a period in which the outgoing Congress can still act, and more than one crypto insider has suggested that it's not out of the realm of possibility that a hypothetically derailed Clarity Act could reappear then. While crypto lobbyists are desperate for immediate action on the legislation, the industry is playing the long game on the political front. Crypto PACs have already devoted millions of dollars to keep adding to the list of its friends in Congress from both parties. The sector's leading campaign-finance arm, Fairshake, is careful to back members of both parties, and many of their political picks will be joining next year's Congress. If the Clarity Act is law by then, there are likely to be other pressing legislative matters for the industry, potentially including a tax overhaul and the establishment of a federal stockpile of bitcoin More For You Developers and traders warn of structural risks as a cross-chain exploit spreads fear and prompts billions to flee DeFi platforms. What to know: - A $292 million exploit of Kelp DAO's rsETH token triggered a broad liquidity crunch across DeFi, sparking heavy withdrawals from major lending platforms, including Aave. - Developers claim the hack stemmed from a misconfigured cross-chain verification setup in LayerZero-based infrastructure, exposing how flexible "modular" security, without strong minimum standards, can create...

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