Bitcoin analysts explain why BTC price can’t take out $80K

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Bitcoin analysts explain why BTC price can’t take out $80K A large overhead supply cluster, increased profit-taking activity and the resumption of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are key factors keeping BTC price pinned below $80,000. Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 32% to a 10-week high of $79,500 on April 22 from its sub-60,000 multi-year low. But recent buyers took advantage of the rally to exit as the price has since corrected to $76,000 on Thursday, with $80,000 proving a tough barrier to break. Key takeaways: - Bitcoin sell pressure risk exists around $80,000, a resistance level that may delay the bulls. - Short-term holders and Bitcoin ETF investors keep selling, frustrating recovery attempts. Bitcoin price can't crack $80,000 As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin failed to break above $80,000 as its rebound fell short of a bull market comeback. This is due to the resistance zone between the True Market Mean at $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $79,000, which continues to cap upward momentum, as recent buyers used this range to exit near breakeven. “This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding: “With this rejection confirming overhead resistance, the mid-term bias tilts toward further downward pressure.” Bitcoin STH cost basis model. Source: Glassnode Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data shows that investors hold about 475,301 BTC at an average cost of $77,800-$80,880, reinforcing the significance of this resistance zone. Traders say the BTC/USD pair must flip the resistance at $80,000 into support to target higher highs toward $84,000. After reclaiming the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, BTC/USD has sent “one bottoming signal after another firing on higher timeframes,” technical analyst SuperBitcoinBro said in a Wednesday post on X, adding: “But I agree it needs to get past 80K.” Daan Crypto Trades said the $80,000 level remains the “main level for the bulls in the short/mid term.” BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin breaking $80,000 would signal that the bulls are still in control, paving the way for the next big resistance at $84,000. BTC selling by short-term holders halts rally Additional onchain data shows “heavy distribution” by short-term holders, as these investors booked profits on Bitcoin’s recent rally to $80,000. The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit shows that as the price approached the $80,000 level, recent buyers realized profits at a rate of $4 million per hour. The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit is a real-time measure of how aggressively recent buyers are realizing gains. The metric spiked as high as $7.2 million per hour on April 15, about roughly “four times the base level that had established itself since mid-April, confirming that short-term holders seized the rally as a distribution opportunity,” Glassnode said, adding: “The buy side simply lacked sufficient liquidity to absorb this wave of profit realization, capping momentum and triggering the subsequent rejection.” Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted STH realized profit. Source: Glassnode More selling pressure came from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have recorded outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $390 million. This marked the longest outflow streak since March 20, when a three-day outflow streak accompanied an 11.5% BTC price drop after rejection at $76,000. Spot BTC ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue Analysts at Wise Advise said that the return to spot BTC ETF outflows after a nine-day inflow streak is the first sign that “the local top may be in.”

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