Tom Lee Warning: Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks Stop Falling! But Other Sectors May Enter a "Rolling Bear Market"

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Fundstrat's Head of Research Tom Lee issues warning: although the Mag-7 bear market has ended, other sectors of Wall Street are entering a "rolling bear market," with three major risks — energy shortages, the midterm election cycle, and the expiration of tech IPO lockups — poised to erupt simultaneously. (Background: Tom Lee predicts U.S. stocks will face a 20% crash) (Context: U.S. stock valuations approach the 1999 bubble peak) Fundstrat's Head of Research Tom Lee recently issued a warning to the investment community: although the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants (Mag-7) such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia have moved past their previous downturn phase, this does not mean overall market risk has been lifted. He believes that later in 2026, other sectors on Wall Street will successively enter a wave of "rolling bear market." In Lee's view, demand driven by AI remains strong, which will support major indices in maintaining a degree of resilience through year-end. However, this support is concentrated in a few sectors, and internal market divergence will further widen. In an interview with CNBC, Lee said: "The bear market in the Mag-7 and the software sector is over." But he also emphasized that the performance of these sectors does not represent overall market conditions. In other words, the recovery of the Mag-7 is more of a localized improvement than a broad-based rebound. As time progresses, Lee pointed out that three factors will become important sources of market disturbance: - Midterm election cycle: The second half of 2026 will bring the U.S. midterm elections, and historical data shows that market volatility around election cycles rises by an average of 15% to 20% - Expiration of tech IPO lockups: Tech companies that went public between 2025 and early 2026 will see lockup expirations cluster together, potentially triggering selling pressure - Tight energy supply: Lee considers this the most direct source of risk Among the three major risks, Lee views energy as the most urgent concern. He pointed out that current petroleum product inventories are low and unlikely to improve in the short term, warning that "the day of reckoning is coming — petroleum product inventories are running short, and the situation cannot be alleviated in the near term." As a result, companies with high energy dependence may bear greater pressure in the upcoming adjustment. This also includes process power demand in semiconductor manufacturing, which is soaring alongside rising AI chip output. Bringing the perspective back to Taiwan, Taipower already announced in 2025 that it would stop supplying power to new data centers north of Taoyuan, and the power competition between the AI and semiconductor industries has already begun. Tom Lee's energy warning serves as an early alert for Taiwan's tech supply chain as well. Despite holding a cautious view on the outlook for certain areas, Lee remains optimistic about the two core pillars supporting the U.S. economy, including energy independence and productivity gains brought about by AI. He advises investors to focus more on directions with strong earnings certainty at this stage. He said: "Right now, investors are focused on AI fundamentals, and those truly gaining strength are the companies that control scarce resources." Under this capital preference, money continues to flow toward AI industry chain–related companies and large tech firms. However, he also mentioned that the semiconductor sector has shown some signs of overheating, but short-term capital momentum still favors AI suppliers and tech leaders. By contrast, other Wall Street industries may gradually enter an adjustment phase. This article is not investment advice.

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