Bitcoin’s ‘Strong Hands’ Return as 15 Million BTC Lockup Meets Critical Fed Week

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Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holder supply has climbed to roughly 15.26 million BTC, the highest level since August 2025. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says these wallets absorbed 316,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Markets now turn to FOMC minutes due May 20 from Jerome Powell’s final Federal Reserve meeting as Chair. The release will likely shape risk appetite through summer. Long-Term Holders Reverse November’s Selling CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that long-term holder supply has rebounded to about 15.26 million BTC. Over the past 30 days, these wallets added roughly 316,000 BTC. That contrasts sharply with late November, when long-term holder wallets shed roughly 650,000 BTC over 30 days. The reversal points to renewed accumulation among investors who first bought near the cycle peak six months ago. “The supply held by Long Term Holders (LTHs) continues to increase as investors keep holding their BTC. We are now back to 15.26 million BTC held by these investors, who are generally considered much more stable than STHs,” wrote Darkfost. The analyst also flagged a separate dynamic for late May. The 800,000 BTC transferred from Coinbase last year will cross the six-month threshold on May 23. Those coins will formally enter the long-term holder bucket, an aging effect that could amplify on-chain supply readings later this month. Exchange Flows Stabilize as Bottom Signals Surface Bitcoin trades near $78,047 as of this writing, down by 0.17% in the last 24 hours. Coin Bureau highlighted that the gap between exchange inflows and outflows has narrowed for six straight sessions. The research firm argues stable flows, falling reserves, and whale scarcity often cluster around major Bitcoin bottoms since 2019. “Stable flows, falling exchange reserves, and whale accumulation are classic ‘dry powder’ signals seen around every major Bitcoin bottom since 2019,” wrote analysts at the Coin Bureau. FOMC Minutes Arrive During a Leadership Handover These technical formations come as markets awaut the The Federal Reserve to publish minutes from the April 28 to 29 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. “…we expect the FOMC to signal a tightening bias at the June meeting of the monetary policy-setting committee, followed by a 25bps FFR hike at the July meeting. We can’t rule out more rate hikes over the rest of this year,” analysts at Yardeni Research noted. The committee held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third straight pause. Four officials dissented, the largest split since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a quarter-point cut. Presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari, and Beth Hammack opposed the statement’s easing bias. Powell’s term as Chair ended May 15, and Kevin Warsh was confirmed as his successor in a 54-45 Senate vote. Powell will remain on the Board of Governors through January 2028. The minutes mark the final policy record produced under Powell’s chairmanship. Traders will parse the text for shifts in inflation tolerance or forward guidance. Those signals could shape positioning into June’s first meeting under Warsh and influence near-term Bitcoin price action.

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