Bitcoin sees a "dead cat bounce"? CryptoQuant warns: Profit-taking wave may follow the surge

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Bitcoin has been on a strong run recently, rebounding more than 20% in over a month and hitting a 3-month high. However, as investors celebrate Bitcoin’s return to the $80,000 mark, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant points out that this rally is underpinned by "profit-taking" selling pressure, and current market characteristics are more consistent with a "bear market rally" rather than the start of a new bull market. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, noted in a recently released report that Bitcoin's rally is primarily driven by three factors: low prior asset valuations, easing macroeconomic pressures, and explosive growth in demand for "perpetual futures." However, signs of profit-taking in the market are also heating up rapidly. Julio Moreno observed that on May 4th alone, Bitcoin holders realized 14,600 BTC in profits, the highest single-day record since December 10 of last year. Additionally, another key indicator, the "Short-Term Holder SOPR" (STH-SOPR, used to track whether short-term investors are exiting at a profit or loss), has climbed to 1.016 and has remained in the "profit zone" above 1 since mid-April. Julio Moreno explained: "This means that Bitcoin has clearly entered a profit-taking zone since mid-April, confirming that the recent rally has prompted holders to begin selling in stages." From "Heavy Losses" to "Dumping": A Turning Point in Market Structure Looking at the 30-day moving average, the "Net Realized Profit" of Bitcoin holders has rebounded to 20,000 BTC, marking the first time it has returned to positive territory since December 22, 2025. Looking back at February and March of this year, the market saw a "net loss sell-off" of 398,000 BTC, indicating that investors were in a state of extreme panic at the time. Julio Moreno emphasized: "The shift from 'capitulation' to 'profit-taking' is considered a 'structural turning point in bear market dynamics.' Returning to positive territory fully reflects that the rally in April and May has successfully repaired the overall profitability of investors." However, investors should not be overly optimistic. Based on historical experience, to confirm a true "bull market" structural shift, net profit levels typically fall within the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range, and the current profit scale of 20,000 BTC still leaves a huge gap. Julio Moreno stated: It is precisely this stark gap that makes us more convinced that this is just a bear market rally, rather than a comprehensive shift to a bullish market structure. On the other hand, the surge in "unrealized profit" also hides potential concerns. CryptoQuant data shows that the current overall unrealized profit margin for Bitcoin is approximately 18%, a sharp contrast to the deep unrealized loss of negative 29% during February and March. Julio Moreno pointed out that historical patterns suggest that when paper profits soar, the impulse for investors to "take profits" increases, which in turn significantly raises the risk of a market correction. Despite the heavy potential selling pressure, Julio Moreno believes that a price correction may not happen immediately because the demand side remains supported. This includes continued growth in perpetual futures demand, a spot market that has shrunk but not severely, and exchange inflows that remain low. This combination of "existing demand but increasing selling pressure" means the market is in a delicate phase where it could pull back at any time, but has not yet reached a peak distribution point. CoinGecko data shows that the current price of Bitcoin is around $80,796, with the trend remaining nearly flat over the past 24 hours.

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Published:2026-05-11 06:47:46

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