Market sentiment is extremely bearish! Is Bitcoin repeating the 2022 bear market? Analysts: Watch $70,000 as key support.

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On-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that the Bitcoin rebound has once again hit a wall, with price action showing high similarity to the bear market in March 2022. Amid weakening demand and cooling capital momentum, investor sentiment has entered a "highly pessimistic" ice age, suggesting that this correction may not be over yet. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno noted in a report released on Wednesday that despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin encountered resistance after approaching the "200-day moving average" at $82,400, subsequently retracing to a low of $76,000. Julio Moreno emphasized that this trend "perfectly replicates" the bear market misery of March 2022. Back then, after a 43% rebound from the bottom, Bitcoin also failed at the 200-day moving average and fell into a downtrend. This time, after a sharp rally of approximately 37% from the April 2026 low, Bitcoin has once again slammed into this invisible wall of resistance. He further explained: In a bear market structure, the 200-day moving average has always been the dividing line between a "Relief Rally" and the "resumption of the downtrend." Julio Moreno pointed out that whether in March 2022 or now, as long as Bitcoin fails to break through the 200-day moving average decisively, historical experience shows it is the strongest technical signal that the "bear market structure remains intact." Buying interest freezes! Bitcoin demand falls into contraction What worries analysts most right now is not just the technical resistance, but the simultaneous deterioration of demand. Julio Moreno stated that the main driver behind Bitcoin's strong rally in April and May was speculative buying from the derivatives market. However, after Bitcoin crossed the $82,000 mark, this perpetual contract speculation frenzy suddenly decelerated as traders took profits and closed positions. Meanwhile, "spot market buying," which is valued by general investors, is shrinking even faster than in the derivatives market. Even institutional capital from Wall Street has begun to retreat, with US Bitcoin spot ETFs shifting from net buyers to net sellers. Data shows that these ETFs set a brilliant record of aggressively accumulating 64,000 BTC within 30 days in early May, but have recently net sold approximately 4,000 BTC. Regarding this sharp and sudden sell-off, Bitfinex analysts bluntly stated that this confirms the brief rebound earlier this year was built on a fragile foundation of "structural capital deficiency." In addition, the "Coinbase Premium Index," seen as a bellwether for US capital flows, remained in negative territory during the rebound in April and May and the subsequent retracement. Julio Moreno explained that a negative premium (discount) means that US institutions and retail armies have not yet returned to the market. Historical experience shows that a truly lasting Bitcoin bull market is almost always accompanied by strong support from the Coinbase premium. Key defense retreats to $70,000; will unrealized profits hitting zero become a "market support" opportunity? Under the pressure of various negative factors, CryptoQuant's "Bull Score Index" has plummeted from a previously healthy level of 40 to the 20 range, falling into the "highly pessimistic" zone. Julio Moreno pointed out that this coincides with data from February to March 2026, when Bitcoin dropped to between $60,000 and $66,000. Historically, when the index hovers between 0 and 20, it is often followed by "further price discovery to the downside" or a "prolonged consolidation." Where should the bulls retreat to next? Julio Moreno believes that if this price correction continues to test lower levels, $70,000 will be a critical level that determines the outcome. This price point is also the "trader realized price." In past bear market phases (including the rebounds in October 2025 and January 2026), this indicator has played a key role as support and resistance multiple times. Once the price falls back to near $70,000, the unrealized profits on the books of short-term traders will hit zero or even turn into losses. Julio Moreno believes that this will actually reduce the market's willingness to sell, helping to attract long-term capital to enter and buy the dip, thereby stabilizing the price. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $77,859, up about 1% in the past 24 hours, with a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere remaining in the market.

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