Bitcoin analysis eyes sharp rebound after BTC collapses below M2 supply 'fair value'

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Bitcoin analysis eyes sharp rebound after BTC collapses below M2 supply 'fair value' Bitcoin remained trapped "massively below" its "fair" level, as dictated by global liquidity trends and gold ratio, the latest BTC price analysis says. Bitcoin (BTC) is “completely mispriced” to the downside in 2026 compared to global liquidity, new analysis argues. Key points: - Bitcoin price weakness relative to global liquidity hits levels never seen before. - M2 money-supply correlation calls for an "aggressive" BTC price rebound. - Critics argue that phenomena such as the four-year BTC price cycle take precedence over M2. Analysis: BTC price "massively below" liquidity value In an X post on Tuesday, crypto trader and YouTuber RobynHD put the spotlight back on BTC price action versus the global M2 money supply. “Bitcoin is currently trading at a level that has historically almost always been erroneous, because it's massively below its global liquidity fair value,” he wrote. BTC/XAU ratio with M2 fair value data. Source: RobynHD/X An accompanying chart from Bitwise European head of research Andre Dragosch shows the BTC-to-gold ratio against its fair liquidity value as compared to global M2, the latter being at all-time highs. In the past, Bitcoin has seen strong positive correlation to M2. While their phases do not line up exactly, BTC/USD has traditionally performed best during prolonged periods of money-supply growth. Currently, the BTC/XAU ratio is far below its expected trajectory, even falling by two sigma bands below the fair value line, creating a so-called negative “Z-score.” “If the BTC/liquidity relationship is still intact, then BTC is currently being completely mispriced,” RobynHD continued. “A Z-score near -2 has never occurred historically and points to the point of maximum mispricing.” BTC/XAU ratio versus global liquidity Z-score. Source: Adrián Treviño/X The M2 bull case calls for an “aggressive repricing” event to come next as Bitcoin attempts to catch up with global trends. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets have also diverged from stocks, which continue to post record highs this month. Bitcoin M2 correlation argument "flawed" The M2 argument has its fair share of detractors in the current macroeconomic environment. Responding to the Bitwise data, Julio Moreno, head of research at onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, called the Bitcoin-M2 correlation “flawed from the design stage.” “There is no daily M2 data, and most of the cbio in that series is China, whose M2 is basically always increasing,” he argued. Others point to timing inconsistencies with previous crypto bear markets, such as in 2022. “In 2022, M2 topped after Bitcoin hit its real bottom around $18K. If you’d waited for M2 to peak, you would've sold the lows,” trading account Cryptic Trades noted in an X post last year. BTC/USD one-day chart with global liquidity data. Source: Cryptic Trades/X At the time, trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC/USD should peak long before the current M2 uptrend reverses. The pair saw its latest all-time highs in October. “When Bitcoin peaked in its Bull Market in November 2021... Global M2 continued to increase for months, only topping out in April 2022,” he told X followers. “That's 5 months after the Bitcoin Bull Market had ended.” More on the subject

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