Inflation rebounds! US March PCE rose 3.5% YoY, meeting expectations; surging energy prices hinder Fed rate cuts.

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The U.S. released the March PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, today (30th). Driven by surging energy prices, the headline PCE year-on-year growth rate jumped from 2.8% in the previous month to 3.5%, while the core PCE year-on-year growth rate rose to 3.2%, both in line with market expectations. (Previous coverage: U.S. February core PCE fell to 3.0% as expected! But inflation remains sticky, Fed rate cut path unclear) (Background: U.S. January core PCE year-on-year at 3.1%, meeting expectations but still far above Fed's 2% target) The Fed's concerns regarding an inflation rebound have now been confirmed by the latest economic data. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) officially released the personal income and outlays report for March 2026 this evening (30th). As the inflation indicator most favored by the Fed for monetary policy formulation, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index undoubtedly sends a clear signal to the market: the battle against inflation is far from over. According to the released data, U.S. inflation showed a clear "acceleration" trend in March, with all figures precisely matching Wall Street's prior expectations: - Headline PCE: Monthly growth reached 0.7% (0.4% in the previous month); year-on-year growth jumped significantly from 2.8% last month to 3.5%. The report noted that this strong increase was primarily attributed to the surge in global energy prices. - Core PCE: After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE monthly growth rate moderated to 0.3% (0.4% in the previous month); however, the year-on-year growth rate climbed slightly to 3.2% (3.0% in the previous month), indicating that underlying inflation stickiness persists. Beyond rising prices, other data in the report show that U.S. consumer wallets and spending power remain highly resilient. Data shows that U.S. personal consumption expenditures (nominal PCE) increased significantly by $195.4 billion in March, a growth of 0.9%; even after adjusting for inflation, real PCE maintained a positive growth of 0.2%. Meanwhile, both personal income and disposable income increased by 0.6%, and the personal saving rate stood at 3.6%. This means that despite high prices, U.S. consumers still possess strong spending momentum, which implicitly provides support for inflation. The timing of this PCE report is extremely sensitive, falling exactly one day after the Fed's April FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed out "surging energy prices" as a driver of inflation at yesterday's press conference, using it as the core reason for maintaining interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The March PCE data released today effectively confirms the policymakers' concerns. With inflation indicators trending higher across the board, the market's original "early rate cut" scenario has been completely disrupted. In the short term, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, are likely to continue facing valuation correction pressure under a high-interest-rate environment.

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Published:2026-04-30 11:52:29

Category:bullish · Export Category bullish

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