BTC breaks through $78,400 to hit a 14-day high! Danske Bank calls for a market reversal: Fed to cut rates by 50 bps this year

📄Full Article· Automatically extracted by trafilaturaGemini 翻譯1682 words

Bitcoin broke through the $78,000 mark today, currently trading at $78,389.79 (+3.19%), reaching a 14-day high. Meanwhile, Danske Bank analysts warned that the money market is currently pricing in only 9 basis points of rate cuts, far below their expectation of 50bp for the year (two 25bp cuts), suggesting the market may be severely underestimating the Fed's easing room this year. This article is compiled by BlockTempo from the Danske Bank 4/17 FX Forecast Update, LSEG money market data, and Binance spot price API. (Previous coverage: Denmark's largest bank, Danske Bank, opens up Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP investments, ending an eight-year crypto ban) (Background: 2025 Year-End Exam: Crypto Asset Allocation Guide After FOMC Decision) Bitcoin saw a strong breakout above the $78,000 mark today. As of the afternoon of April 22 (Taiwan time), BTC is trading at $78,389.79, a daily gain of +3.19%, with a 24-hour trading range between $74,821.57 and $78,450, hitting a 14-day price high. Ethereum followed suit, with ETH currently at $2,393.21 (+3.21%), approximately 2.4% away from its April 18 peak of $2,451. On the same day the crypto market signaled a strong rebound, two interest rate strategy analysts at Danske Bank issued a warning: the mainstream market's expectation for Fed rate cuts this year may be "severely underestimated." Danske Bank senior analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen (Interest Rate Strategy) and Head of Fixed Income Strategy Jens Peter Sørensen stated clearly in the FX Forecast Update report released on April 17: "We expect rate cuts in September and December of 0.25 percentage points each, which is more than what the market currently expects." The discrepancy in the analysts' forecast is stark when looking at the numbers: According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) money market data, derivatives currently reflect only 9 basis points of rate cuts for 2026—in other words, the market barely believes there will be any substantial rate cuts by the Fed this year. The median projection in the Fed's March dot plot was for 25bp of cuts for the year (one cut), which was already a relatively conservative stance. Danske Bank's latest estimate provides for 50bp (25bp each in September and December)—nearly six times higher than what the market is currently pricing in. It is worth noting that Danske Bank's baseline expectation in March was "25bp in June and 25bp in September." They have now pushed the timeline back by one quarter, indicating their belief that the Fed's pace will start later than originally thought, but the impact will eventually materialize. The BTC breakout is not without reason. Looking back at the trend, the price hit a recent low of $70,678 on April 13, followed by a structural rebound. It touched $77,956 during the session on April 17, establishing a previous swing high, followed by about five days of consolidation. Today's high-volume breakout above $78,000 means BTC has effectively stabilized above its previous high, refreshing its 14-day peak to $78,173 (CoinGecko data, @13:25 Taiwan time). On the macro front, bullish signals continue to accumulate: the extension of the ceasefire in the Iran nuclear deal reduces geopolitical risk premiums, market support from bulls has strengthened ahead of the large options expiry on April 24, and with the FOMC meeting approaching on April 28, the repricing of rate cut expectations acts as a potential catalyst. If Danske Bank's forecast is correct—that the market is indeed severely underestimating the Fed's rate cut magnitude—then current interest rate futures pricing will face a massive correction, and risk assets still have room for upside from repricing. Historically, whenever the Fed's actual actions exceed market expectations, high-beta assets (including Bitcoin) are often the most direct beneficiaries. However, warning signals cannot be ignored. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a hawkish tone at the April 28 FOMC meeting, or hints that inflation data does not yet permit rate cuts, it could lead to a direct collision with the market's rekindled optimism in the short term. A longer-term variable: market rumors suggest that Kevin Warsh, a hawkish successor favored by Trump, could

Data Status✓ Full text extractedRead Original (動區 BlockTempo)

🔍Historical Similar Events· Keyword + Asset Matching6 items

2026-04-28

BTC faces a showdown this week with the FOMC meeting and tech earnings! QCP: If BTC breaks through $82,000, the CME gap could target the $90,000 mark.

Similarity 320%標的 BTC關鍵字 btc同分類 bullish

2026-04-28

Three Bitcoin charts say BTC price may rally toward $82K

Similarity 320%標的 BTC關鍵字 btc同分類 bullish

2026-04-27

Buying spree! MicroStrategy adds another 3,273 BTC! Total holdings surpass 818,000 BTC.

Similarity 320%標的 BTC關鍵字 btc同分類 bullish

2026-04-27