TD Cowen Raises Strategy (MSTR) Price Target to $400 on Bitcoin Accumulation and Balance Sheet Shift

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TD Cowen has raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400, pointing to strong bitcoin accumulation and a shift in financing strategy as key drivers of potential upside. With shares trading near $166, the new target implies a gain of more than 140%. The brokerage maintained its buy rating, citing faster-than-expected bitcoin purchases and a change in capital structure that supports growth in bitcoin per share. Strategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, now holds 843,738 BTC, valued near $64 billion. That position represents more than 4% of the total bitcoin supply cap. Analysts noted that the company has exceeded prior forecasts for bitcoin purchases during the current quarter. Between May 11 and May 17, Strategy acquired 24,869 BTC for about $2.01 billion. TD Cowen now expects the firm to purchase close to 100,000 BTC in the second quarter of this year alone. A central metric for the firm’s thesis is bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares, which has risen to 2.21 from 1.95 at the end of 2025. This increase suggests that bitcoin accumulation has outpaced dilution from share issuance, a key concern among investors tracking Strategy’s aggressive capital strategy. Strategy’s preferred equity The firm’s recent use of preferred equity has played a major role in that dynamic. In the second quarter, Strategy raised about $1.95 billion through preferred share issuance, with most proceeds directed toward bitcoin purchases. TD Cowen views this approach as less dilutive than common stock issuance and more favorable for existing shareholders. At the same time, Strategy has taken steps to improve its credit profile. The company repurchased about $1.5 billion in convertible notes at a discount, a move that reduces future refinancing risk and limits potential share dilution. Analysts described the transaction as a positive signal for both equity holders and creditors. TD Cowen’s valuation framework applies a multiple to projected bitcoin gains and incorporates expected holdings, debt, and preferred equity obligations. The firm projects bitcoin-related gains of more than $15 billion in 2026, supporting the higher price target. Despite the bullish outlook, Strategy’s stock remains volatile and tied to bitcoin price movements. Shares have fallen about 60% over the past year and sit well below their 52-week high above $450. Recent declines in bitcoin have also weighed on the stock, reinforcing its role as a leveraged proxy for the digital asset.

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