Nvidia Stock Beat Earnings but 3 Bearish Charts Whisper a Local Top

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Nvidia stock sits at $223 after peaking at $236 on May 14, with three separate charts showing big money has quietly started leaving even though the latest earnings print cleared both top and bottom-line consensus. The headline beat on May 20 looked clean. The chart underneath tells a different story, where big-money flows, momentum, and retail options positioning have all flipped or weakened in succession against the rally. Big Money Quietly Exits and The Reason is Clear Nvidia (NVDA) has rallied 44.05% from the March 30 swing low at $164 to the May 14 peak at $236. That move, by its size and shape, usually forms the pole of a potential bullish flag pattern. The consolidation since the peak carries the early structure of the flag, which would project further upside if the breakout confirms with volume. Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here. The first crack in the bullish read shows up in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that measures volume-weighted buying and selling pressure and acts as a proxy for big-money accumulation. CMF peaked at 0.57 on April 28. As of May 21, it has dropped to 0.09. Between those two dates, Nvidia stock price trended higher into the May 14 peak while CMF trended lower. That is a textbook bearish divergence. The earnings print on May 20 did not reverse the trajectory. Underneath the headline beat, gross margin stalled at 75%, merely matching Street expectations. NVIDIA’s FY26 10-K discloses that one direct customer alone accounted for 22% of total revenue, while inventory and supply commitments on the balance sheet have grown to $95.2 billion. Wall Street desks might be pricing those structural risks even as the headline reads as a clean beat. The big-money exit is one half of the story. Momentum and retail positioning are starting to align with it. RSI Bearish Divergence and Put-Call Shift Confirm the Tape Is Tilting The second crack sits on the momentum oscillator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of the magnitude of recent price changes on a 0-100 scale, currently reads 61.85 against a signal line of 62.97. Between April 27 and May 14, Nvidia stock seems to be making higher highs while RSI is making lower highs. That’s a standard bearish divergence pattern, which can lead to trend reversals and deep corrections. The RSI divergence confirms if the next candle forms under $226. The third crack shows up in retail and dealer hedging. The Nvidia put-call ratio by volume sat at 0.38 right before the May 20 earnings print. As of May 20, the volume ratio has climbed to 0.46. The open interest ratio sits at 0.79, slightly below the 0.80 reading from the pre-earnings window. Overall positioning is still call-heavy, but the direction of change shows put accumulation building after the earnings release. A similar pattern played out around the February 25 print. The put-call volume ratio went from 0.55 around the print to 0.69 in early March, and Nvidia stock corrected from $195 down to $183 in the same window. Post-result put accumulation has historically led to short-term weakness. With big-money flows, momentum, and retail hedging all leaning the same way, the price chart becomes the final decider. Nvidia Stock Price Levels To Track Now The Nvidia stock chart maps the levels that decide whether the bullish flag holds or breaks down. The 44.05% pole projects a series of Fibonacci extension targets if the flag confirms, sitting at $245 (0.382), $253 (0.5), $262 (0.618), $274 (0.786), and $289 (1.0 full extension). For the breakout to confirm, Nvidia stock needs a sustained close above $227, followed by reclaims of $234 and the $236 local peak. A clean move above $236 with volume validates the bullish flag and opens the path to the Fibonacci targets above. On the downside, the immediate decider is $226. The inability to reclaim $226 confirms the RSI bearish divergence and exposes $217, the swing low of the current pullback. A break of $217 weakens the bullish flag pattern substantially. A break of $194 invalidates the flag setup entirely and exposes the broader uptrend to a deeper correction. The pattern nuance worth flagging is that a bullish flag does not automatically resolve in the direction of the pole. With CMF, RSI, and put-call all leaning bearish at the same time, the burden of proof sits with the bulls. The $226 level separates a breakout retest of $236 and the Fibonacci extension targets above from a confirmed divergence-driven slide toward $217 and possibly $194.

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