Morning Minute: Hyperliquidは「Nasdaqよりも大きい」

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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify. GM! Today’s top news: - Crypto majors rebound slightly, up 1-2%; BTC at $73.3k - HYPE rebounds 10% after ICE CEO calls it “Bigger than Nasdaq” - JPMorgan says the debasement trade is unwinding, driving BTC & gold lower - Standard Chartered compares ETH to Amazon in 2021, lays out $40k target - Anthropic raises $65B at $965B valuation, releases Claude Opus 4.8 same day 💡The Man Who Built the NYSE Calls Hyperliquid “Bigger Than Nasdaq” Jeff Sprecher, founder of Intercontinental Exchange and the architect of the modern NYSE, sat down at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference this week and said something the traditional finance world will struggle to ignore: Hyperliquid is bigger than Nasdaq by volume, was built by 11 people, and can’t be dismissed. “You look at it, you’re like, wow, that’s pretty something.” On the team: “The people that have built that exchange are extremely smart... I salute these guys for doing it.” On whether incumbents can look away: “I don’t think you can ignore it.” Hyperliquid has pulled early-adopter market participants, traders who would ordinarily be in ICE and Nasdaq’s traditional markets, onto a blockchain venue. The weekend oil dynamic illustrated the stakes best. Sprecher noted that Hyperliquid has been trading crude oil perpetuals on weekends when ICE’s markets are dark, and it just so happens that the most significant price-moving events in the Iran conflict have occurred on weekends. On institutional clients: “While most of our institutional clients are not trading on blockchain... they’re all watching it, and they’re watching the price discovery. Whether they admit it or not, it is being part of the zeitgeist.” On the SpaceX listing as a potential watershed: “I think regulators and market participants are going to say either it was irrelevant or it was highly relevant.” On what comes next: “We’re just going to have to get used to the interplay of retail and professional trading 24/7, 365.” Praise from the highest level of TradFi. And markets liked it as well, with HYPE rebounding 10% overnight to $62.50 📉 JPMorgan Says The Debasement Trade Is Unwinding JPMorgan analysts published a research note on Thursday arguing that the “debasement trade” is losing momentum. For those unfamiliar, the debasement trade concept was to buy Bitcoin and gold as hedges against inflation, geopolitical instability, and currency weakness. Now we have simultaneous outflows from both Bitcoin and gold ETFs over the past two weeks, alongside weakening institutional positions in CME futures for both assets. JPMorgan said the recent pullback may reflect growing expectations that tensions between the United States and Iran could ease, suggesting investors may be positioning ahead of a possible diplomatic agreement. Effectively, they’re saying geopolitical tension is going away and thus there’s less need of a hedge. The problem with that, at least from Bitcoin holders POV, is that Bitcoin didn’t perform all that well as a debasement hedge even through the Iran conflict. Stocks outperformed broadly, as did gold. The real test of the debasement thesis will play out over the years to come as inflation continues to impact the US and global economy - the primary driver of the thesis, much moreso than geopolitical hedge. Inflation isn’t going anywhere. We will see if BTC does… 🤯 Standard Chartered Calls ETH Amazon in 2001, Sets $40,000 Target Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick published a note arguing that Ethereum’s current price doesn’t reflect its network’s improving metrics, and comparing ETH’s current situation directly to Amazon following the dot-com bubble burst. Bezos famously said during that period: “The stock is not the company. And the company is not the stock.” Amazon’s stock, adjusted for splits, has risen roughly 1,000-fold since its post-dotcom lows. Kendrick’s argument is that the same disconnect exists now for ETH. Standard Chartered maintained its year-end price target of $4,000 for Ethereum and $40,000 by the end of the decade. The fundamental bull case he laid out is DeFi and stablecoin dominance: 54% of all stablecoins are currently on Ethereum, and stablecoins account for around one-third of all Ethereum transactions in 2026 year-to-date, as well as 60% of gross TVL on the network. The bank forecasts the stablecoin market cap to 7x to $2T by 2028 and RWAs to 50x to $2 trillion by 2028. Ethereum would be the primary beneficiary in this thesis, thus that growth is expected to drive Ethereum transaction volume and TVL to new highs, supporting higher ETH prices. Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors give just a 15% chance of ETH to hit $4,000 in 2026. So there’s a 6x on the table if you think Standard Chartered is right… 💰 Anthropic Raises $65 Billion At $965B Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round at a $965 billion post-money valuation, becoming the most valuable AI company in Silicon Valley for the first time. The round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, each putting in more than $2 billion. With the latest round, Anthropic has more than doubled its valuation since February, jumping from $380 billion to $965 billion. Anthropic’s revenue has exploded thanks to its popular AI coding assistant, Claude Code. Annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, up from a $30 billion run rate earlier this year and $10 billion in annual revenue last year. The company also highlighted strategic infrastructure relationships with Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, and recently expanded its computing footprint through agreements with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX. Anthropic simultaneously released Claude Opus 4.8 today. This could be the AI startup’s last private fundraising before debuting on the public markets. Now the race is on to see which AI giant, Anthropic or OpenAI, will IPO first. Get your liquidity ready now… 🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets - Crypto majors are slightly green with HYPE leading; BTC +0.1% at $73.3k; ETH +1% at $2,000; SOL +1% at $82; HYPE +9% at $62.16 - XLM (+14%), INJ (+14%) and DEXE (+12%) led top movers - Oil -4% at $87; Gold +1% at $4,570 - Stock futures are slightly green with the Nasdaq up 0.1% - The CEO of ICE (NYSE parent) called Hyperliquid “bigger than Nasdaq” and talked about how their institutional clients are watching price action on Hyperliquid on weekends - FalconX confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC Thursday and hired bankers for a US IPO, making it one of the few crypto firms still pushing forward while Grayscale, Kraken, Ledger, and ConsenSys have all delayed listings; FalconX is a prime brokerage for institutional crypto traders, processing $1.5T+ in lifetime volume; the firm raised at a $4B valuation in 2022 and has been profitable since 2024 - Meanwhile, Grayscale paused its IPO preparations Thursday and is unlikely to restart before Q4 at the earliest - Tether’s Argentine peso-pegged stablecoin USAT saw circulating supply surge more than 500% over a short window, reflecting accelerating adoption of dollar-alternative stablecoins in Argentina’s high-inflation economy Corporate Treasuries & ETFs - The Bitcoin ETFs saw $223M in net outflows on Thursday; the ETH ETFs saw $121M in outflows - The HYPE ETFs saw $1.7M in net inflows on Thursday - Bit Digital added approximately $20 million in ETH to its treasury Thursday, continuing its shift from Bitcoin mining to Ethereum treasury and AI compute Meme Coin Tracker - Meme leaders were green; DOGE +1%, SHIB +2%, PEPE +1%, PENGU -2%, TRUMP +2%, BONK +1%, SPX -2%, FARTCOIN +1% - Squire (+50%), Mumu (+38%) and Cards (+14%) led notable movers on Solana - Base movers included Deus (+28%), Degen (+24%) and Nock (+17%) 📈 Myriad Market of the Day 💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker - Hyperliquid’s SpaceX pre-IPO perp crashed 45% in 30 minutes Thursday, plunging from $2,277 to a low of $1,254 before partially recovering, wiping out $1.51 million and liquidating hundreds of retail traders - Myriad introduced its World Cup market along with a $100k prize pool for top traders, market makers and more - AI agents are shifting from reactive to anticipatory, learning user patterns to surface information before it’s requested like pre-booking flights, pulling account history before a client call, and preparing competitive analyses before recurring meetings - Apple reportedly plans a deep ChatGPT integration into Siri in iOS 27, per leaked internal documents ahead of WWDC 2026 - The Sui Network suffered another mainnet stall Thursday, its third outage in 18 months 🚚 What is happening in NFTs? - NFT leaders were red again; Punks even at 32 ETH, BAYC -4% at 8.23 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.27 ETH; Hypurr’s +5% at 324 HYPE - Nonplayable Characters (+234%) and Shellmates (+55%) led top movers - Yuga Labs is merging ApeCoin's operations directly into Yuga, eliminating the separate ApeCo (formerly Ape Foundation) structure; ApeCo lead Cam is stepping down, ApeChain tech and BD teams will report directly to Yuga, and several ApeCo staff are departing with the transition complete by June 5 - Bored Apes partnered with Scandinavian Tobacco Group to create a limited-edition collector's cigar box themed around the Club's journey.

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