帝国が揺らぐとき、コードは揺らがない：Cryptoと新たな金融シルクロード

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The landscape of the Middle East and North Africa changed dramatically when the United States and Israel joined forces and attacked Iran. The whole world then became involved in the conflict. Some tried to be a mediator and tell both sides to calm down. Others chose sides and expressed their support or disapproval. While countries try to figure out issues associated with oil prices, sanctions, migration, and the threat of nuclear war, ordinary people (the most vulnerable members of any society) are just trying to live their best lives. Some entrepreneurial spirits have even bet on the end of the war on Polymarkets. These are tough times for the region, but some nations have been tougher for over 8,000 years, and this column will offer a different perspective on the conflict and explore some of the potential scenarios, as well as the role of crypto in the region. Three Scenarios, One Certainty Before we get to the money, let’s be honest about the map. We’ve been tracking this conflict closely, and the trajectories that matter most aren’t the dramatic ones, they’re the structural ones. As we discussed in “From Oil to On-Chain: The Evolution of Technology, Crypto, and RWA Tokenization in the MENA Region,” we outlined three possible scenarios. The most realistic path is a War of Attrition: the conflict simply grinds on. The US and Israel continue degrading Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure; Tehran, battered but not broken, keeps firing back with missile barrages, drone swarms, and tanker harassment. Oil stays above $100 not as a spike but as a floor. Diplomatic channels don’t collapse, but they don’t function either. Nobody wins and nobody stops, many countries around the world suffer. The darker version is Systematic Collapse (and it doesn’t require malice) just one miscalculation. A single strike on civilians, and Iran stops calibrating its response and uses everything at its disposal. The Strait of Hormuz goes from “threatened” to “closed,” cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and triggering an energy crisis that hits China, India, Japan, and Europe hardest. The least likely but not impossible path is a Fragile Pause. Washington is bleeding political casualties, no endgame, Congress demanding answers. Tehran is absorbing infrastructure damage that the state can no longer sustain. What follows is not peace, but a frozen conflict. No bombing, but no reconstruction either. Both sides rearm. It’s the least bad version of all possible outcomes, which makes it grim to call optimistic. One truth runs through all three: wars end either when participants get what they want, or when the cost in lives exceeds what anyone is willing to justify. We haven’t reached that line yet. But while diplomats negotiate, businesses still need to move money. The “New Normal”: Navigating the Fog of War In the wake of the strikes, a strange “new normal” has emerged. While most Arab nations have issued stern condemnations of the escalation, life in the regional hubs remains a study in calculated calm. In the UAE, resilience trumps panic. Students go back to school at the end of March, and the digital economy continues to hum despite the erratic swings in oil prices and frequent market-moving tweets from the White House, backed by decentralized cloud infrastructure. However, the war has left its mark on the physical world. The crypto community felt the sting of reality with the postponement of TOKEN2049 Dubai, as organizers moved the event to 2027 citing safety and logistics. Some of the international events have been called off for safety reasons. For many firms, physical operations have hit “pause,” shifting entirely into the digital ether. But infrastructure doesn’t cancel. And that distinction matters enormously. Saudi Arabia moved with uncharacteristic bureaucratic speed. To stabilize trade routes, the Kingdom’s Transport General Authority (TGA) recently suspended all documentation requirements for marine vessels for 30 days. It’s a pragmatic admission that in 2026, the flow of goods is more important than the flow of paperwork. Meanwhile, Israeli news portals hint at a growing, if silent, alignment between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the West against Tehran, the region finds itself at a crossroads. This isn’t just a military conflict; it is a stress test for the future of decentralized finance and regional unity. On the other hand, the media and the government of Turkey and Qatar are actively promoting the idea of mutual peace and cease the fires from both sides. The Digital Bridge: Stablecoins in a Changing Financial Environment The Middle East Council on Global Affairs recently published a framework for navigating this “New Normal,” warning GCC states against falling into a “strategic trap” between competing alliances. Their recommendation is a sophisticated form of differentiated hedging: maintaining diplomatic channels with all sides while building a security architecture capable of standing without external life support. In the streets of Dubai and the boardrooms of Riyadh, this “Strategic Autonomy” is being built not just with hardware, but with code. If the 20th century was defined by the petrodollar and Western security guarantees, 2026 is becoming the era of Digital and Financial Neutrality. For the regional business community, being “diplomatic with both sides” means using financial tools that don’t take sides. This is why we are seeing increased use of On-Chain Settlement. When traditional banking rails become entangled in the sanctions and counter-sanctions of the US-Israel-Iran triangle, digital assets tools may provide alternative transaction channels. While in more stable regions (Europe or South East Asia) crypto is still largely treated as a speculative asset or an innovation layer. In MENA, it is increasingly being used in practical contexts, including maintaining transaction continuity. For many, digital assets are being used as one of the available tools in certain transaction flows. When traditional credit lines are frozen due to force majeure, a stablecoin transfer settled on-chain may allow a merchant to secure a cargo flight or a rerouted shipment through Saudi Arabia’s newly deregulated maritime routes. By betting on ceasefire odds, local businesses are essentially managing financial exposure related to operational disruptions. If the war continues, their “win” on-chain helps offset the rising cost of fuel and disrupted trade. By 2026, the blockchain infrastructure is being used more actively in response to current conditions. RWA: When “Infrastructure” Becomes Urgent This isn’t happening in a vacuum. The shift toward on-chain settlement in MENA mirrors a broader structural transformation already underway in global finance. Institutions like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and J.P. Morgan tokenizes real-world assets because of its atomic settlement, programmable yield, and the elimination of intermediary layers are often viewed as an alternative form of infrastructure. Moving from slow T+2 settlement cycles to near-instant on-chain finality is an operational improvement that the world’s largest financial institutions have already begun executing. When correspondent banking freezes under sanctions pressure, that “better infrastructure” stops being theoretical. The multi-trillion dollar RWA market is currently being tested in real-world conditions, in the trading desks of Dubai and Riyadh. Geopolitical conditions may influence the pace of adoption. Exploring the MENA Landscape: Why the Region Remains an area of interest There is a particular kind of clarity that often emerges during periods of global transition. In 2026, the MENA region continues to demonstrate a unique resilience that warrants close attention from the global digital asset industry. While some external observers may focus on the cancellation of major regional events, at ChangeNOW, we look at the evolution of structural developments. The infrastructure and the regulatory landscape established in the hubs like Dubai remain robust. It is this foundational stability that propels our interest in the region. In the current landscape, the frameworks introduced by regional regulators highlight that governance and compliance are now core operational pillars for any business in this space. This level of institutional seriousness is what the industry requires. When global financial systems face complexity, the demand for clear, dedicated legal frameworks only increases. The UAE’s approach to virtual asset regulation offers a structured environment that has been noted by Web3 participants and digital asset enterprises. Our interest in this region is not based on simple optimism, but on a long-standing historical reality: geography, infrastructure, and institutional trust are enduring factors. Just as trade routes have historically adapted to change, the modern architecture of finance is currently undergoing a significant evolution. We are closely observing the MENA ecosystem because we suppose the shift happening in how global settlements and financial trust are structured. Digital assets and stablecoins are increasingly being used in certain contexts, thus clear frameworks are required. We are aware that the path ahead is associated with navigation of different complexities. However, we think that the global crypto ecosystem in Dubai continues to develop towards the future of financial services. And we continue to monitor developments in this area and assess changes in the regional landscape. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or use any digital assets or services. Any references to digital assets or technologies are provided for general informational context only.

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