痛い。米国の30年物国債利回りが5%に達し、Bitcoinがその代償を払う可能性がある。

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Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price Hawkish dissent within the Federal Reserve, elevated oil prices and rising long-term inflation expectations are pushing bond yields higher. What to know: - Rising Treasury yields could suck out capital from bitcoin and other risk assets, analysts said. - Several factors, including the hawkish dissent within the Federal Reserve are pushing bond yields higher. Ouch. That is how Holger Zschaeptiz, one of the most widely followed macro commentators on X, reacted after the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note (government bond) rose to 5% early today, hitting the highest since July 2025. This level has been tested only twice over the past two decades. His reaction also sums up the mood of several crypto analysts who see rising yields as a headwind for bitcoin "At this point, the dynamic is simple. As long as yields remain attractive and [Fed's monetary policy] stays tight, capital has a real alternative to risk. This continues to pressure assets like crypto, depending on liquidity and momentum," Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, said in an email to CoinDesk. sFOX is a San Francisco-based cryptocurrency prime dealer and trading platform designed for institutional investors, hedge funds, and businesses. Bitcoin is already under pressure alongside an uptick in the Dollar Index (DXY). As of writing, BTC traded at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours, and the DXY hovered above 99, looking to extend Wednesday's 0.5% gain. Here's why rising bond yields typically hurt BTC and other risk assets. When the U.S. government needs to borrow money, it issues bonds, and the yield on those bonds is the annual return the bond investors earn. So, when yields rise, bonds become more attractive. A 30-year Treasury yielding 5% is an almost risk-free return. Therefore, every dollar sitting in bitcoin is a dollar not earning that 5% yield. That tradeoff typically leads to capital rotation out of non-yielding risk assets, such as bitcoin and other risky assets like technology stocks. Rising yields also typically weigh on gold, which fell over 1% to a one-month low of $4,540 on Wednesday and last changed hands near $4,564. "Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [have] historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions," Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, said. Note that the 30-year yield is not the only one rising. The 10-year yield, which serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, is also elevated. Together, they point to financial tightening, a situation where borrowing gets costly, disincentivizing risk-taking in both financial markets and the economy. Bond yields are also rising in the U.K. and other parts of the world. Fed dissenters push back against easing The central bank left rates unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, as expected. What was not expected was the internal dissent. Three out of 12 voting officials pushed back against easing language in the statement, a development that has caught markets off guard. That's pushed up expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, which is showing up in bond yields. "The Fed's decision to keep rates steady wasn't the shocker, but those three dissenters calling for a strike on any easing guidance threw a bucket of ice on the market's pivot party. It's a classic hawkish signal, and as Bitcoin is usually an indicator of risk, Bitcoin is feeling it," Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, said in an email. ING characterized the so-called hawkish dissent by three officials as a warning shot aimed at incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's pick to replace outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell. "They perhaps want to make it clear that they will not be easily swayed to his way of thinking that rates in time can be lowered," ING analysts said. Interestingly, the policy statement released Wednesday contained no clear bias toward easing, reinforcing the message that the Fed is in no hurry to pivot. Oil rally is lifting inflation expectations The bond yield surge is not just about the Fed. Early Thursday, oil prices surged to their highest since 2022, with Brent briefly topping $125 per barrel, after Trump mulled extending the blockade of Iranian ports. Moreover, oil prices have been elevated, hovering largely between $80 to $120 since the Iran war began in late February. As a result, energy prices at gas stations are surging, pushing long-term inflation expectations higher, as CoinDesk noted early this week. All of that is pushing yields higher. "Inflation is not convincingly back to target, and the Fed is not signaling a near-term shift. Markets may want clarity on cuts, but the Fed is not giving yet. Until that changes, flows will keep favoring yield and safety over volatility. For crypto, that means the macro backdrop remains a headwind, not a tailwind," Pires said. More For You Crypto sold off across the board with bitcoin down 2.1% and ether off 3.4% as Brent crude surged 7.1% to $126 a barrel on reports President Trump is being briefed on military options for Iran. What to know: - Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies fell as Brent crude surged to a four-year intraday high on renewed fears of U.S. military escalation against Iran. - The jump in oil prices reflects a growing war premium tied to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and expectations that hypersonic U.S. weapons could...

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