経済の荒波の中で「世代を超えた勝負」が浮上 – 今週の振り返り

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This editorial is from last week’s edition of the newsletter Week in Review. Subscribe to the newsletter to get this weekly editorial the second it’s finished. The newsletter also includes the biggest stories of the week with a comment on each story. Key Takeaways: - Tether froze record USDT as U.S. seized $500M from Iran, putting crypto rails in geopolitics. - CoinShares saw 4 weeks of ETF inflows as capital concentrated in BTC, ETH, and blockchain equities. - Paul Sztorc’s eCash fork may exclude Satoshi’s coins, reigniting Bitcoin governance debates. Week In Review Oil stubbornly reclaimed the $100 mark, while Treasuries fell again, creating a somewhat ominous mood in markets. With attention still on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boasted that the US has seized nearly half a billion in crypto from the country while also driving the country into a currency crisis dubbed “Operation Economic Fury.” This came following Tether’s announcement last week of the largest USDT freeze ever, which Chainalysis linked to Iran’s central bank. Sanctions, seizures, liquidity pressure, FX instability, and payment rail control are now central tools of geopolitical force. Crypto is not outside that battlefield, but very much part of it. The macro backdrop is hinting that something somewhere may be breaking. Japan stepped in to defend the yen with interventions, causing the yen to surge as much as 3% against the dollar. Meanwhile, the UAE’s move to leave OPEC adds another crack to one of the world’s most important economic blocs. OPEC isn’t dead, but looks a little weaker now. Meanwhile, 30-year yields spiked to 5% on Wednesday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his last press conference. Walking off stage, Powell said “Thank you very much, everyone. I won’t see you next time.” For anyone still pushing the “de-dollarization” narrative, the market handed out another reality check. Offshore dollar deposits just crossed $14 trillion, an all-time high, and as Jon Turek noted, “the big holders of USDs are not only not selling, but they are seemingly adding.” Whatever the long-run debate is, the dollar remains the bloodstream of the global system. So while the world looks more fragmented, more politicized, more unstable, the dollar still dominates the plumbing. Despite the big equities rally, Jason Goepfert noted that the S&P 500 closed at a record high this week, and then the very next day, at least 1% more stocks hit 52-week lows than highs. In over 70 years, that has only happened twice: this week and at the bursting of the tech bubble in January 2000. Bitcoin may be absorbing some macro anxiety, but Paul Tudor Jones called BTC “unequivocally” the best inflation hedge, and when PTJ speaks, people listen. Arthur Hayes said it is time for a breakout, targeting $125,000 by year-end for BTC. The RHODL metric, which compares the ratio between young and old coins, is being cited as evidence the bottom is in or very close. And of course, the male astrology charts are making the rounds again, along with fresh hopium squigglies forecasting a sharp rebound to all-time highs for BTC. The bullishness is not universal. Rekt Capital thinks we may only be 55% through the bear market, while Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin will lose its fight with resistance over the next month or so. Cryptoquant notes that perp demand is rising while spot demand is still contracting, the exact setup that appeared in 2022 which preceded the next leg down. A sobering but sharp observation came from Cred, who said crypto’s current state is “a bit shit”, and argued that the classic broad-brush alt season is a thing of the past, and reminded everyone that market cap is not a measure of quality. He also thinks reputationally, crypto is no longer the “sexy frontier of speculation,” with institutions looking at AI, and retail eyeing 0DTE equities and single name stocks. That is probably a good framework for understanding this cycle. Crypto isn’t disappearing, but it is narrowing. Capital is concentrating into a few serious narratives. Tokenomist reports that this week alone brought $330 million in unlocks, AKA more dilution and fatigue for altcoins. DeFi protocols banded together to cover 90%+ of the bad debt from the KelpDAO hack. That is genuinely impressive. It shows coordination, seriousness, and a capacity for ecosystem-level response that few other chains could likely match. On the other hand, a fresh round of sudden exploits affecting hundreds of wallets is not doing any favors for DeFi sentiment, plus the Ethereum Foundation announced it is selling 10K ETH, while chatter continues that it has also been OTCing substantial ETH to Tom Lee. Speaking of Tom Lee, Bitmine now holds over 5 million ETH after a series of massive purchases, edging closer to its “alchemy of 5%” mantra. Lee also reposted a chart about ETH reaching $60,000, dubbed as a “generational play,” that reiterated a call he made at Paris Blockchain Week. On this week’s episode of Token Narratives, we spoke about whether or not Lee’s ETH optimism could be classified as strong conviction or a mental illness. Regardless, as one of the first big Tradfi execs to start bull-posting crypto, Lee’s track record is solid. Institutions are still buying the theme. CoinShares reports four straight weeks of positive ETF flows, including record inflows into blockchain equities. That’s not a meme, that’s legitimate institutional allocation. There was also an interesting valuation comparison floating around between Coinbase and Hyperliquid, noting similar revenue numbers despite Hyperliquid only having 11 employees. As crypto matures, we may see more companies and tokens being judged like actual businesses and less like ideological mascots. The industry is coming back to reality, where making actual money matters. Stablecoins are still quietly becoming crypto’s benchmark consumer product with product market fit, and one of the most important adoption stories of the week doesn’t need any crypto-native framing: Meta is offering creator payouts in stablecoins. That’s ultimately what mainstreaming stablecoins looks like: a giant internet company deciding that internet-native dollars are useful enough to pay people with. Non-USD stablecoins are also picking up steam, particularly on Base. Dollars, euros, lira; the currency hierarchy remains intact, but the rails are changing. Stablecoins remain one of the few areas where crypto consistently feels ahead of traditional finance rather than trapped in its shadow. The ideological class got a little weirder this week. For some reason, Elon Musk was urging people not to save for retirement, claiming that AI and robotics would make things so cheap that saving money today is pointless. Real Vision founder Raoul Pal says AI is pushing us toward an economic singularity, where the right answer is universal basic equity rather than UBI. Meanwhile, incredible things are happening over at JPMorgan. So, as we move into May, Bitcoin is strong, but not unanimous. Even as sentiment improves, the world’s leading crypto asset is not without its own internal fractures. One of its most credentialed developers, Paul Sztorc, has decided to fork Bitcoin because he has lost faith in the protocol’s ability to make necessary changes. The most controversial part about Sztorc’s proposed fork, dubbed eCash, is that it would not include Satoshi’s coins. US Debt Nears $39T GDP Mark for First Time Since 1946, Validating Bitcoin US Debt Nears $39T GDP Mark for First Time Since 1946, Validating Bitcoin The U.S. national debt has officially surpassed $38.9 trillion, eclipsing 100% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the… Read NowThe U.S. national debt has officially surpassed $38.9 trillion, eclipsing 100% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the… As expected, the “Sztorc Fork” idea is igniting heated debate on Crypto Twitter (CT), with some prominent community members like Calle describing Sztorc’s announcement as reading “like he’s having terminal stage sh**coin psychosis.” The spat over eCash is a reminder that even the world’s most trusted digital asset still faces hard questions about governance, ossification, and adaptability. -Alex Richardson

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