Standard Chartered backs $4,000 ether as retail piles into the sub-$2,000 drop

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Standard Chartered backs $4,000 ether as retail piles into the sub-$2,000 drop The bank says onchain metrics will pull the price back up, just as Amazon's stock price recovered after 2001. A retail dip-buying frenzy and a record futures short build say the bottom isn't in yet. What to know: - Retail traders rushed to buy ether after it fell below $2,000, pushing social-media sentiment into a fear-of-missing-out zone that analysts said has historically preceded further declines. - Standard Chartered reiterated a long-term forecast of $4,000 ether by end-2026 and $40,000 by 2030, arguing the token will catch up with strong underlying activity on the Ethereum blockchain. - Derivatives data show record ether futures open interest building as prices drop, suggesting an influx of new short positions while funding rates remain flat, and big, confident long bets are scarce. Retail traders piled into ether (ETH) bets even as the second-largest token dropped under $2,000 for the first time since late March, a signal some analysts say means a deeper decline is on the cards. Social media lit up with buy-the-dip calls the moment ETH cracked the round number, and analytics firm Santiment's gauge of bullish-versus-bearish chatter on the token ripped to a month-high of 2.4-to-1 on May 27. On Santiment's scale that sits deep in the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) zone, where the crowd turns greedy. The crowd, historically, is early. Retail investors rushing to buy a breakdown at a psychological support level is the kind of optimism that tends to come before more pain, not less. Santiment noted the crowd "usually gets calls wrong." The cleaner buy, by that logic, shows up when the dip-buyers stop cheering and start bleeding. Standard Chartered, meantime, remains on the crowd's side, just with a longer horizon and a fancier analogy. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's digital assets research head, used a Thursday note to reaffirm a call he's held since February: ether at $4,000 by year-end and $40,000 by the end of 2030. His pitch is that the Ethereum blockchain and its token have come apart. Transaction counts on the network and the value locked in its apps are near record highs, while ether's price has bled 57% from its August peak against the dollar and shed 37% against bitcoin. Kendrick drew parallels to Jeff Bezos watching Amazon's stock crater from $113 to $6 in the 2001 dot-com wreckage while the business underneath kept improving. The shares have since climbed roughly 1,000-fold in the intervening quarter-century. "ETH will catch up to the internal metrics, it is just a matter of time," he wrote. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market to grow sixfold by the end of 2028 and tokenized real-world assets to balloon fiftyfold. It reckons Ethereum carries 50% to 65% of both. Those two buckets already make up more than half the value locked on the chain. Get to $4,000, and the ether-to-bitcoin ratio is back at its 2021 high near 0.08. It's currently around 0.03. As such, the traders putting real money down aren't waiting for the catch-up. Ether futures open interest, the total stack of outstanding contracts, climbed to a record 16.39 million ETH ($32.61 billion) even as the price sank. That's a warning: Open interest building while the price falls is the fingerprint of fresh shorts, not dip buyers. A holder of a short position is betting on a price drop. Funding, the fee perpetual traders pay to hold a position, stayed flat at 0.0022%, so nobody's paying up to be long either, Coinglass data show. So the bullish side of the ETH trade right now is a retail crowd that usually buys too soon and a bank repeating a target it set three months ago. Watch the crowd, not the chart. Santiment's point is that the time to buy is when the dip-buyers finally panic. Right now, they are cheering. More For You As bitcoin and gold momentum fades, investor flows are increasingly rotating into AI infrastructure, semiconductor and memory-related equities. What to know: - Bitcoin surged more than 650% between November 2022 and October 2025 before entering a prolonged bear market. - Gold’s rally peaked months after bitcoin, climbing from $2,000 to above $5,200 per ounce before correcting nearly 20%. - Memory chip exposure lately has supplanted AI names like Nvidia as the hot-money target, while...

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