비트코인 예측 시장, 트레이더들이 Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad에 베팅을 쌓으면서 $84K 천장 형성

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Prediction market traders have placed more than $100 million in combined volume across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad on where bitcoin’s price lands in May 2026 and beyond, with crowd odds pointing to a market stuck below $85,000 for the near term. Bitcoin Prediction Markets Show $84K Ceiling as Traders Stack Bets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad Key Takeaways - Polymarket’s bitcoin May price market hit $21.4M in volume, with 79% odds BTC stays below $75,000. - Kalshi’s $150K bitcoin series (KXBTCMAX150) drew $33.9M in volume, giving BTC only an 11% chance before January 2027. - Myriad’s $84K vs. $55K market gives bitcoin a 76.7% chance of pumping first, with no expiration date set. Traders Put $37M on Bitcoin All-Time High Milestones as $150K Odds Sit at 1% on Polymarket The most active single market for the month is Polymarket‘s “What price will bitcoin hit in May?” contract, which has recorded $21,471,305 in total trading volume as of May 19, 2026. The frontrunner outcome shows a 79% probability that bitcoin will trade below $75,000 at some point during the month, with shares priced at 79 cents each. The “below $70,000” bracket carries a 23% probability, while the “above $85,000” target sits at just 10%. More extreme outcomes, including a move above $90,000 or a drop below $60,000, each hold 2% or lower. Under that market’s rules, resolution triggers immediately if any Binance BTC/ USDT 1-minute candle records a High price at or above a given upside target, or a Low at or below a downside target, at any point between 12:00 AM ET on May 1 and 11:59 PM ET on May 31. Binance’s 1-minute chart is the only accepted data source. Prices from other exchanges or spot markets do not count. A separate Polymarket contract asks when bitcoin will reach $150,000. That market has drawn $18.4 million in total volume. Traders give bitcoin only a 7% chance of reaching $150,000 by December 31, 2026, with Yes shares trading at 7 cents. The nearer deadline of June 30, 2026, draws even less confidence, sitting at a 1% probability, with Yes shares at 0.8 cents and No shares at 99.3 cents. Resolution rules follow the same Binance 1-minute candle standard, triggering a Yes outcome if the BTC/ USDT High reaches or exceeds $150,000 by the applicable deadline. Alongside this, Polymarket’s broader “ bitcoin all-time high 2026 milestone” market covers 34 individual price targets spanning from significant drops to historic highs, with a tracking window running through December 31, 2026. That contract has accumulated $37,193,007 in total trading volume, one of the largest Polymarket markets in terms of volume. Brackets for bitcoin trading above $80,000 and $90,000 both carry 100% implied probability, reflecting prices already achieved. At the far end, the $1,000,000 target holds a 1% probability. Each bracket resolves Yes independently if a Binance 1-minute candle High meets or exceeds the target at any point during the window. On Myriad, traders are betting on a simpler binary: will bitcoin pump to $84,000 or dump to $55,000 first? The market has generated a more modest $172,000 in trading volume. The odds favor the upside, with a 76.7% probability assigned to the $84,000 target and a 23.3% probability assigned to the $55,000 target. The market carries no expiration date and stays open until one level is hit. Resolution is based on the Close price of each 1-minute candle on the Binance BTC/ USDT spot pair via Tradingview. The Myriad platform commits to validating the final outcome within 24 hours, provided Binance remains operational. Kalshi too is running several bitcoin markets with different mechanics. The most straightforward asks whether bitcoin will hit $75,000 before it touches $100,000. That specific contract carries an 85% Yes probability, with Yes contracts trading at 94 cents and No contracts at 14 cents. The 24-hour volume stands at $44,288. The contract tracks the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, using a simple average over any 60-second period. If bitcoin drops to or below $75,000 first, the market resolves Yes. If it crosses $100,000 first, it resolves No. If neither level is hit by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, it resolves No. Kalshi’s “When will bitcoin hit $150k?” series (ticker: KXBTCMAX150) has drawn $33,893,312 in total trading volume. Three timeframes are offered: before August 2026 at a 1% probability (Yes costs 2 cents, No costs 99 cents), before September 2026 at a 4% probability (Yes costs 4 cents, No costs 97 cents), and before January 2027 at an 11% probability (Yes costs 11 cents, No costs 90 cents). This contract uses CF Benchmarks data, specifically the Bitcoin Real-Time Index trimmed mean, which strips the top and bottom 20% of values within each 60-second window to reduce the influence of momentary price spikes. Payouts are expected roughly one hour after market close. Kalshi also tracks the monthly high for bitcoin in May 2026 similar to Polymarket. That contract has recorded $1,150,013 in volume as of May 19, with the current forecast sitting near $84,000. The odds for higher thresholds are slim: a 9% chance of crossing above $85,000 (Yes at 9 cents, No at 92 cents), a 4% chance above $87,500, and a 2% chance above $90,000. Contracts resolve Yes if the CF BRTI trimmed mean, calculated minute-by-minute, crosses the specified threshold at any point through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Finally, Kalshi’s end-of-2026 bitcoin price market has accumulated $23,739,420 in trading volume, with the current forecast at approximately $83,000, representing a roughly $12,000 move from current levels. The $75,000-to-$79,999.99 bracket holds an 8.3% chance, the $80,000-to-$84,999.99 bracket sits at 7.6%, and the $70,000-to-$74,999.99 range holds a 5.5% probability. The contract opened February 25, 2026, and closes at 12:00 AM EST on January 1, 2027, with payouts projected for 12:06 AM EST. Settlement uses the average of 60 individual price points from the CF Benchmarks BRTI during the final minute before close. Contracts are mutually exclusive, and standard insider trading rules apply. Across all six prediction markets, the consistent signal from traders is that bitcoin faces a ceiling in the near term. The crowd is skeptical of a move to $85,000 this month, and more skeptical still of $150,000 before 2027. The volume behind that view is substantial. 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