比特幣 8 萬美元有撐！「鐵底」看似浮現，為何交易員仍不敢追高？

📄完整原文· 由 trafilatura 自動擷取Gemini 翻譯1530 字

After the volatile shakeout last Friday, BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 mark. However, behind this seemingly strong rebound, market observers are watching with caution: is this a powerful breakout by the bulls, or a "head fake" testing the selling pressure above? Market observers analyze that, compared to simple price fluctuations, the current market structure of BTC is actually undercurrents. Undeniably, spot buying is indeed warming up, and inflows into BTC ETF continue to provide support. However, a large part of the driving force behind the recent active market comes from high-leverage futures traders, rather than pure spot demand. This makes the BTC rally more susceptible to macroeconomic headwinds, especially with inflation data due to be released soon. **Active buying, but an "unhealthy" structure** Singapore-based market maker Enflux points out that the strong demand for ETF and the continuously bottoming BTC reserves on exchanges are building a more solid "structural bottom" for BTC. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode also stated that both the spot market and the perpetual futures market have seen more aggressive buying. The problem is that this bullish report card is not particularly impressive. The current upward momentum in the market is showing signs of fatigue, while leverage ratios continue to climb, and funding rates indicate that hedging demand from the short side still exists. In other words, traders are still hedging during the rebound rather than fully embracing this rally. BTC has risen 13.4% over the past 30 days and is currently hovering around $81,000. Last Friday's better-than-expected non-farm payroll report, which should have been a sign of a strong economy, became a shackle for the market under the shadow of a potential delay in rate cuts by the Fed. BTC fell from $82,000 to below the $80,000 mark that day, hitting $79,743 before stopping its decline and rebounding. Enflux analyzed: "If this were a clean bullish breakout, BTC should have easily crossed $80,700, but the spot market pulled back first. This shows that the area around $80,000 is not just a line on a chart, but a real and heavy selling pressure." If market risk appetite is truly warming up, why has BTC been slow to show a more convincing breakout? In this regard, Enflux proposed a rare but insightful comparative indicator: the gradually recovering high-end luxury watch market may decode the true movements of high-net-worth individuals for us. According to the latest secondary market watch data from Morgan Stanley, watch prices rose slightly by 1.9% in the first quarter. Among the 35 brands tracked, 25 showed gains, indicating improvements in both value retention and inventory turnover. The signal behind this data is not that hot money from the crypto circle is flowing into luxury watches, but that after a long price correction, high-net-worth buyers are re-embracing risk assets with clear pricing, scarcity, and easily assessable demand. For BTC, this is undoubtedly a somewhat embarrassing comparison: if the risk appetite in the high-end market is thawing, but BTC is still stumbling before key resistance zones, it means that in the process of capital returning, cryptocurrency has not yet become the preferred target for the wealthy class to demonstrate investment confidence. **Who is leading the market?** Glassnode's trading data shows that buyers are indeed more active, but not to the extent of completely eliminating market concerns. One key indicator is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). Simply put, CVD is mainly used to observe whether "active buying" or "active selling" dominates the market, and it can also reflect which side is leading the market direction. Glassnode pointed out that the spot market CVD rose from $42.4 million to $62 million, an increase of 46.4%, showing that buyers are increasingly willing to chase prices directly rather than waiting for prices to fall to pick up bargains. As for the perpetual futures CVD, it surged from $110 million to $410.3 million, meaning that leveraged traders have also turned bullish. However, leveraged capital can accelerate a rally, but its endurance is far inferior to spot buying. Once the market sentiment changes, futures positions can reverse very quickly. In summary, market observers generally believe that compared to a month ago, the current "bottom" of BTC is indeed more solid. However, whether it can trigger the next big market move may no longer depend on the enthusiasm of the crypto community, but on whether the upcoming inflation data can give traders enough confidence to abandon hedging operations and truly dare to enter the market to chase this cryptocurrency frenzy.

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原始資訊

ID：47c88099c4

來源：區塊客

發佈：2026-05-12 05:04:46

分類：zh_news · 導出分類 zh

標的：BTC

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