巨鯨、 ETF 逢震盪掃貨！比特幣劍指 8 萬美元大關，能否迎來強勢突破？

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Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door of $80,000. Analysts point out that while the market's bullish conviction still faces significant tests, this rebound signals an improvement in market structure. According to CoinGecko market data, Bitcoin briefly broke through $79,300 in the early hours of yesterday (23rd), followed by volatile trading, and is currently hovering around $78,000. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of over $11.8 million on April 21, marking a 6-day consecutive inflow streak. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs also saw an inflow of approximately $43.4 million, achieving a strong 9-day consecutive net inflow record. A strong breakout or a prolonged short squeeze? As the price approaches $80,000 again, the market focus is entirely on whether Bitcoin can stage a clean and decisive breakout this time. On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode notes that Bitcoin has surpassed the "True Market Mean" of $78,100 for the first time since mid-January this year. After months of sluggish performance, this is undoubtedly a significant reversal signal. However, investors must remain vigilant. Glassnode warns that the average cost basis for short-term holders (those holding for no more than 155 days) has shifted up to $80,100, making it the most critical short-term resistance zone. Glassnode warns that if Bitcoin successfully breaks through $80,000, over 54% of short-term buyers will shift into a state of unrealized profit, and previously trapped investors may choose to exit, creating a new source of selling pressure. Historically, this is often accompanied by the risk of a "bear market rally exhaustion" sell-off. Furthermore, the "Realized profit" of short-term holders has surged to $4.4 million per hour (selling speed), nearly three times the level seen during previous peaks this year (around $1.5 million). In other words, while Bitcoin has reclaimed key territory, the overhead selling pressure remains heavy. Whales are buying aggressively, showing resilience in chip distribution In contrast, analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex hold a more optimistic view on the medium-term trend. Data shows that "whale" wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have aggressively accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013. Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have hit a 7-year low. "These are certainly not the figures one would expect to see when the market is on the verge of a collapse; on the contrary, it indicates that the market is consciously and actively absorbing selling pressure," Bitfinex wrote in its report. The report further points out that Bitcoin's recent performance has gradually decoupled from the "geopolitical script." Amid the recent turmoil triggered by the situation in Iran, Bitcoin rose instead of falling, avoiding becoming a source of liquidity for forced deleveraging. Bitfinex believes this resilience is not only due to whale buying but also stems from the growth in stablecoin market capitalization and the "structural USD circular trading" driven by strong ETF demand, rather than just investor bets on Fed rate cuts. These data points confirm a general observation in the industry. Bitpanda CEO Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad stated that Bitcoin's return to the $80,000 mark is a "clear signal of the digital asset industry maturing," benefiting from better infrastructure, active institutional participation, and increasingly clear regulatory rules. Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at asset management firm 21Shares, reminds that $80,000 remains a "critical resistance zone" that must be closely watched. He points out that the chip absorption capacity of ETFs, whether whales continue to hoard, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions will be the main catalysts for further upward breakthroughs. Derivatives market remains conservative, bulls have not yet launched a full-scale offensive However, signals from the derivatives market remain cautious. Glassnode points out that funding rates for perpetual contracts are still negative. This means that short positions remain substantial, and if buying interest in the spot market continues to heat up, it could trigger a "short squeeze," fueling further gains. On the other hand, implied volatility in the options market continues to trend lower, and long-dated contracts are still positioning for downside protection. Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at crypto lending platform Nexo, shares a similar view. He points out that this Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by "spot buying" rather than high leverage; the combination of rising prices and negative funding rates is a healthy signal for market positioning. However, to stabilize at recent highs, clear positive news from geopolitics (such as Iran negotiations) or

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原始資訊

ID：4a0a05b186

來源：區塊客

發佈：2026-04-24 04:01:50

分類：bullish · 導出分類 bullish

標的：未指定

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